Covid under-reporting rampant in big cities, less so in Bengaluru

There have been between 1.8 lakh and 2 lakh excess cases and between 2,200 and 2,500 excess deaths in cities in July

Out of the six major metropolitan cities in India, only Mumbai and Bengaluru have not under-reported Covid-19 deaths for the month of July, a data analysis shows.

According to Jeevan Raksha, a data analysis project which has been analyzing Covid-19 statistics since the start of the outbreak last year, there were 957 deaths to the novel coronavirus, tabulated in six major cities of the country in July: Ahmedabad, Delhi, Chennai, Kolkata, Mumbai and Bengaluru.

“However, by considering health insurance claims, we can see that there has been severe under-reporting in several cities, excluding Bengaluru and Mumbai,” explained Sanjeev Mysore, convenor of the project.

He added, however, that this analysis does not exclude the possibility of underreporting of cases and fatalities in the previous months of the pandemic.

2L excess cases

As per analysis from the project, there have been between 1.8 lakh and 2 lakh excess cases and between 2,200 and 2,500 excess deaths in these cities in July.

“As per data from the General Insurance Council of India, insurance coverage permeates to roughly between 8 and 20 per cent of the urban population of these cities. For our analysis, we have assumed that 15 per cent of the urban populations of these cities have insurance coverage. But when we look at the actual insurance claims being made, we start seeing some strange things,” Mysore said.

In Delhi for example, which reported 2,077 cases in July and 76 deaths, some 9,192 insurance claims were made for treatment, while 149 insurance claims for deaths were made.

“This constitutes a 443 per cent increase over claims for cases and 196 per cent over deaths. Delhi has underreported 60,000 Covid cases and about 1,000 deaths. Ahmedabad is no better: 33,000 cases and 500 deaths,” Mysore said.

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The analysis also shows that Chennai has underreported 30,000 cases and 300 deaths. In Kolkata, underreporting of cases is relatively low, the report states, but adds that “almost all people who have died due to Covid in Kolkata had health insurance cover, which is impossible. Therefore, the estimated under-reporting of Covid deaths is about 300.”

When it comes to Mumbai, Jeevan Raksha states that one-fourth of health insurance policy holders in India are in Maharashtra.

“Therefore, there is a high degree of correlation between total Covid cases and deaths and insurance claim ratio. Thus, under-reporting in Mumbai is relatively bare minimal.”

In Bengaluru Urban, July’s insurance claims for cases was at 36 per cent. This means that out of the 13,780 cases recorded in the city, 4,991 people (or 36 per cent) claimed insurance. Death insurance claims stood at 15 per cent.

“This validates that there are limited traces of under-reporting of Covid deaths in Bengaluru Urban,” Mysore said.