What’s the road ahead for the JD(S) in Karnataka's politics?

"What wrong have I done to the people of this state?" a tearful H D Kumaraswamy asked voters in Mandya, campaigning ahead of the Assembly bypolls in November 2019.

The former Chief Minister broke down, bemoaning that the people of Mandya had deserted him by defeating his son Nikhil in the Lok Sabha election. He pleaded for support to win the KR Pet bypoll. The regional party went on to lose this seat to the BJP, its first victory in Mandya - a JD(S) bastion.

Within a year, the JD(S) has found itself in a similar quandary as it gears up for the by-election to the Sira Assembly constituency in the Tumakuru district. The bypoll is necessitated due to the death of JD(S) MLA B Sathyanarayana.

"This election is a challenge for us. We need to win this bypoll in view of the party’s future," Kumaraswamy, the JD(S) legislature party leader, told DH. "Our cadre is good here. We are making efforts in taking everyone along."

Kumaraswamy’s optimism will traverse a rocky path. The Sira bypoll is but one of the many challenges the JD(S) faces. The party has been losing electoral ground over years - from having won 58 seats in 2004, the party now has 33. The party’s supremo H D Deve Gowda lost the 2019 Lok Sabha election from Tumkur.

"Owing to his age and health, Satyanarayana was not very active in the constituency. The Congress has fielded T B Jayachandra, who has a strong presence in the constituency. This leaves the BJP and JD(S) contesting for second and third place," a former JD(S) leader said.

Increasing its tally or even retaining what it has is proving to be tricky with a rebellion within the ranks. Three legislators - A H Vishwanath, K C Narayana Gowda and K Gopalaiah, jumped ship to BJP last year. Plus, former MLC Ramesh Babu joined the Congress recently. Others such as Chamundeshwari MLA G T Devegowda have distanced themselves from the party. There are at least 10 to 15 more legislators keen on quitting the party at the next available opportunity, sources said.

The party banks on the support of the dominant Vokkaliga community, but the emergence of Congress’ D K Shivakumar, also a Vokkaliga, is seen to have made JD(S) jittery. Also, the JD(S) is facing the BJP’s aggressive moves to expand in the old Mysuru region.

Kumaraswamy’s sudden meeting with Chief Minister B S Yediyurappa on September 11 led to speculation over a possible BJP-JD(S) merger. "There is no question of merger. We are working towards bringing the party to power independently," Kumaraswamy said, adding that the JD(S) would retain its identity.

Shivakumar was not a threat, Kumaraswamy said. "Our original support base cannot be divided. These are people with whom the party has stood in their everyday struggles," Kumaraswamy maintained.

Kumaraswamy saw a way ahead for the party in approaching people with welfare initiatives. "We want to bring back youth into our fold. We want to address the problems of unemployment and farmers’ woes."

Political analyst Sandeep Shastri said the JD(S) needed to go beyond the family, broaden its decision-making base within and focus on its core areas of influence. "The Janata Dal seems to face an existential crisis. Given the fact that the BJP is seeking to deepen its presence in Tumakuru, the JD(S) seems to be pushed out of what is increasingly becoming a contest between the Congress and the BJP," he said.