Karnataka sees 34,047 fresh Covid-19 cases

Karnataka on Sunday reported 34,047 new cases and a test positivity rate (TPR) of 19.29%, as experts predicted a Covid peak only in February.

The state's current positivity rate rose to 19.2% due to the drop in the number of tests from 2.18 lakh on Saturday to 1.76 lakh. This also reflected in the daily caseload of Bengaluru, which reported 21,071 cases, a decline of 5% from Saturday's 22,284.

However, even at the maximum capacity of 2.2 lakh tests per day, it would be difficult to detect all the cases. Therefore, the peak as such may be a long plateau of high number of cases.

Sources noted that some urban centres, especially Bengaluru, could see a plateau-like peak, even as the test positivity rate will continue to rise.

The test positivity rate is a metric of adequate testing, and as per the World Health Organisation (WHO) must be 5% or lower. However, in the last seven days, Karnataka’s TPR was 12.68%, while Bengaluru Urban’s positivity rate was 16.83%. In comparison, a fortnight ago, the TPR was 3.91% and 6.10% respectively.

Also read: What the dip in Covid cases in Delhi, Mumbai means

“As per available evidence, the peak of the wave in the city will still happen in the last week of January, following which it will start to peak in the rest of the state sometime in the first or second week of February. Only after this will we see a decline of cases over three to four weeks,” said Dr C N Manjunath, a member of the State Covid-19 Task Force and nodal officer for testing.

He pointed out that Bengaluru Urban is lagging behind Mumbai and Delhi by about two to three weeks and the stabilisation of cases in these cities means that Bengaluru Urban could also start to register a similar trend from the tail end of January.

Amid concerns that ICMR’s new testing guidelines will also trigger a reduction in case numbers, Dr Manjunath noted that individual districts and zones have been granted the freedom to adopt their own testing strategy.

The BBMP concurred. “The ICMR guideline says don’t test asymptomatic or contacts," said Dr A S Balasundar, Chief Health Officer (CHO), Bruhat Bengaluru Mahanagara Palike (BBMP). "We are not testing asymptomatics because that would necessitate screening many more lakhs of people per day, which is not possible. At the same time, we are continuing to test primary contacts of known Covid-19 cases because we want to clamp down on the spread.”

City's share

In the meantime, Bengaluru Urban’s daily share in the state’s caseload, which was at 86% on January 6, has already started to fall. But to read this as a sign of the burden of disease moving to other districts could be premature.

Dr Manjunath said that Bengaluru Urban will continue to dominate in the number of new cases for the rest of January.

“Yes, the case share is moving from the city to other districts but this is not necessarily because the infections in the city are going down but more so because cases are rising in other districts,” he said

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