Lockdown in Karnataka has failed to curb Covid-19 case growth so far: Analysis

The statewide restrictions imposed by the government since April 28 have failed to curb the spread of Covid-19 infection in Karnataka, according to an expert analysis.

Mysore Sanjeev, the convener of Project Jeevan Raksha, who conducted the analysis, said that positive cases in Karnataka went up by 28% since lockdown (April 28-May 8) while active cases shot up by 63%. The total number of deaths increased by 18%.

"This indicates that 10 days of lockdown has not yielded any results. Now, Karnataka has extended the lockdown up to May 24. What is the plan to improve the performance? Who is accountable for the results? What happens if the situation remains the same at the end of the lockdown period?" Sanjeev sought to know.

Project Jeevan Raksha is an initiative of Proxima, supported by the Public Health Foundation of India (PHFI).

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During the lockdown, the positive cases Moving Growth Rate (MGR) was highest in five districts – Kodagu (55%), Chamarajanagar (47%), Tumakuru (43%), Mandya (39%), and Ramanagara (38%). This means the doubling period of Covid-19 cases in these districts are relatively shorter when compared with other districts.

It was also found that Bengaluru Rural, Udupi, Mysuru, Hassan, and Kodagu have the highest number of Covid-19 cases per million population among the rest of Karnataka districts (excluding Bengaluru Urban).

Karnataka witnessed a 63% jump in active cases during the lockdown period.

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"The surge in active cases was seen in those districts which have the poor medical infrastructure and inadequate qualified medical professionals - Uttara Kannada, Haveri, Koppal, Bagalkote, and Ramanagara."

The state also witnessed 2,768 Covid-19 deaths at an average of 277 deaths per day. Since the start of the second wave, 5,425 people have died due to Covid-19. Mysuru (390) and Dharwad (362) continues to have the highest deaths per million population among the rest of Karnataka (excluding Bengaluru Urban).

Two districts – Koppal and Dakshina Kannada have abnormally low mortality in the second wave, in spite of witnessing 50% surge in positive cases.

Why did lockdown fail?

"During the lockdown, the gross test positivity rate (including repeat tests of 20%) is 27% and effective test positivity rate is 34%. This clearly shows that the containment management in Karnataka has collapsed and the testing capabilities are overstretched. This also indicates only symptomatic people are being tested," Sanjeev Mysore explained.

As there is tremendous shortage of hospital beds in almost all districts of the state, Covid-19 positive patients who are in the borderline of mild/moderate or severe cases, especially with comorbidities, are being encouraged for home isolation.

"Delay in getting admission is contributing to higher mortality. No tests being conducted before discharging mild, very mild or pre-symptomatic cases admitted to a Covid care facility. Further, in order to reduce the pressure of active cases, a large number of patients are being declared as recovered and discharged," he said.