Many a contender but no luck with B S Yediyurappa successor

B S Yediyurappa with BL Santhosh in 2017. DH Photo/Janardhan B K

Ten more years.

That was the vow Bookanakere Siddalingappa Yediyurappa made on the floor of the Karnataka Legislative Assembly moments after resigning as chief minister before the aborted 2018 Trust vote.“My hands and legs are strong enough that I can work ten more years,” he had pledged.

A year later, he was back as CM after a protracted political drama that involved 16 MLAs from the Congress-Janata Dal (Secular) alliance brazenly switching loyalties to the BJP. The 76-year-old leader had delivered Karnataka to the BJP again and there was no way the party could deny him the CM’s post. The 75-year retirement rule would have to be set aside for another day. The Karnataka strongman wrote his own political script.

And yet, even in that moment of triumph for him, there always lurked the suspicion that it was just a matter of time before Yediyurappa was shown the door. The buzz was that the party was waiting for the right moment to anoint a younger and, perhaps, ‘loyal’ face as Yediyurappa's successor.

In the last few months, amidst the uncertainty triggered by Covid-19, this speculation has only intensified. The BJP finds itself grappling with whom it should choose to replace Yediyurappa, that is, if the old warhorse agrees to bow out before his self-appointed hour of exit.

The answer, if there is one, is not simple. It involves considerations of caste arithmetic, regional representation and generational change.

Heading the list are known suspects: Jagadish Shettar, Laxman Savadi, and Pralhad Joshi — the first two, Lingayat leaders like Yediyurappa, with experience of governance, and the third, a Brahmin and a Union Cabinet minister.

But there are other names doing the rounds, from dark horses like Hubli-Dharwad West MLA, Arvind Bellad, to those like BJP National General Secretary (Organisation), BL Santhosh, who was spoken of as a possible successor to Yediyurappa even back in 2010. Then, of course, many leaders are demanding that Yediyurappa’s successor hail from north Karnataka, where the Lingayats — a community that forms the BJP’s core vote base — are present in big numbers. And finally, there are those who believe the candidate must have the backing of the RSS, bestowing a good chance of success to someone like Basanagouda Patil Yatnal, who ticks many boxes.

And yet, despite the field of applicants being varied and large, replacing Yediyurappa will be easier said than done for the BJP. “I don’t think they’ll change him anytime soon. They won’t wait till 2023 either,” a senior BJP leader known to be close to both Yediyurappa and the party’s central leadership said. “But, there’s no credible replacement right now.”

According to political analyst, Muzzafar Assadi, it goes beyond that. There is a sense of deep crisis in the party at present. “There’s a strong political vacuum,” he held.

In many ways, the BJP is at a cross-roads. Yediyurappa is a part of the founding generation of the party’s Karnataka unit. BJP grew from having just two legislators in 1985 —Yediyurappa and K Vasantha Bangera — to forming the government on its own twice. In this journey, Yediyurappa has become CM four times and the BJP’s state president thrice.

Many look back at how the BJP squandered an opportunity to groom a succession line when Yediyurappa severed ties with the party. This was the BJP’s 2008-13 tenure that saw three chief ministers. After Yediyurappa, D V Sadananda Gowda and Jagadish Shettar ran the show.

The BJP only managed to revive its fortunes in the state after Yediyurappa’s return to the party fold in 2014. That break demonstrated just how dependent the BJP was on Yediyurappa to secure the backing of Lingayats, who constitute 17-18% of the population. Additionally, his ability to build inter-community alliances based on foundational support from Lingayats remains largely non-existent among younger leaders.

Caste, regional factors hold key

As Assadi explains it, there are three social coalitions at work in the state: LIBRA (Lingayats-Brahmins), MOVD (Muslims-OBC-Vokkaligas- Dalits) and 4Bs in the coastal belt (Brahmins-Billavas-Bunts- Baniyas).

“The BJP has created a multi-social coalition, with LIBRA as the dominant one. The party needs someone who represents and sustains all three coalitions. Otherwise, it won’t win more than 70 seats. Right now, Yediyurappa is that someone,” he said.

This is the logic for replacing Yediyurappa with Shettar, Savadi or Joshi. But Assadi adds, “Shettar and Savadi aren’t vote catchers. Joshi is nowhere close to what Ananth Kumar was.”

Some argue that the absence of an alternative leader is a carefully propounded ‘myth’ from the Yediyurappa camp, which wants to project him as the tallest among Lingayats.

“Yediyurappa is not the only leader and he has done nothing for north Karnataka…,” former DG&IGP and BJP leader Shankar Bidari, also a Lingayat, said.

Bidari, who is miffed with alleged corruption in the Yediyurappa administration, cited how Manohar Lal Khattar, Yogi Adityanath, Y S Jagan Mohan Reddy and R Gundu Rao emerged. “The party can choose any good suitable MLA or MP to replace Yediyurappa. That leader has to place the interest of the state and party above one’s own family.”

Many in the party share the view that the party central leadership should “show some guts” in choosing Yediyurappa’s successor. “I suggested that Anantkumar Hegde be groomed,” the BJP leader quoted earlier said. Hegde, a six-time MP and former Union minister, is a firebrand Brahmin. “He has the Hindutva brand, a clean image and doesn’t belong to any camp. But, he has fallen out.”

Former union minister Basanagouda Patil Yatnal, a Lingayat who is currently Bijapur City MLA, is “optimally placed” to be the next CM, sources say.

“Ananth Kumar had ensured that Yatnal became a minister in the Vajpayee Cabinet at a young age so as to hone him as an alternative Lingayat leader against Yediyurappa,” according to a source. Yatnal made headlines recently when he publicly claimed that Yediyurappa’s time was up and that his successor would be someone from north Karnataka.

That leaves BL Santhosh, a Brahmin, widely perceived as Yediyurappa’s bete noire and said to be the brain behind the appointment of the three current deputy chief ministers, and Yediyurappa’s son, BY Vijayendra, who is seen as his political heir, but with a long way to go. “Whoever is brought in will just be a night watchman. The point is that that person should emerge as a leader,” the BJP leader close to Yediyurappa said.

In all this, Yediyurappa is not worried, sources close to him say. “People were talking, what after Vajpayee and Advani. Nobody even remembers those questions now. Ours is a cadre-based party,” BJP spokesperson Ganesh Karnik said. “We have full confidence in Yediyurappa’s leadership. He has been the tallest leader for the party and the electorate. We’re capable, in any eventuality, to find leaders of which there is no dearth.”