JOIN USThe science of looking ahead
At the turn of the millennium, when scientists sequenced the human genome, its full implications escaped popular imagination. Amid debates over its possible benefits and risks, genome science gave an unprecedented push to advances in biology, never as evident as now, two decades later, as the world battles a pandemic.
No one, after the coronavirus pandemic, can deny the capacity of science to surpass human imagination. Never before in the history of science have multiple vaccines emerged within months after the discovery of a new virus. Production and even immunisation started even before 2020 ended. What the past year has shown us is what science can do if research advances, political will and coordinated global efforts merge.
With this backdrop in mind, we do some crystal gazing to explore what might become the reality in the next 10 years in select scientific areas. All may not fructify, but many could, particularly if science is backed by society.
SPACE: Are we alone in this universe?
This is a query that has enamoured scientists for decades. It received a boost half-a-century ago when Cornell University physicist Frank Drake, in a famous formula, demonstrated the theoretical possibility of having millions of such advanced civilisations just in the Milky Way galaxy alone. Soon the search for Extra-Terrestrial Intelligence (SETI) began and till date, there is no dearth of excitement. The cigar-shaped Oumuamua that zipped through the solar system two years ago has added more fuel to the interest.
The next decade is likely to provide several crucial clues to answer this long-standing query. Astrophysicists are of the opinion that it would be an epoch-breaking decade in human understanding of the cosmos, because of the 6-meter class James Webb Space Telescope that will be three times more powerful than the Hubble space telescope and would probe deep space as never before. The James Webb Space Telescope is expected to provide unprecedented information about atmospheres of extrasolar planets and perhaps help identify the molecular building blocks necessary for life there.
The grandiose space telescope would receive able support from three giant ground-based telescopes — European Extra Large Telescope, Thirty Meter Telescope and the Giant Magellanic Telescope — that will allow astronomers to penetrate the farthest part of the visible universe and probe the faintest objects in our own galaxy. The next generation radio telescope Square Kilometre Array will add heft to the quest by unveiling the most enigmatic, yet to be discovered radio signals from the universe.
Some discoveries that are likely include bio-signatures in the atmosphere of Earth-like exo-planets, implying the presence of life, discovery of the elusive ninth solar planet, exo-moons, first generation stars and better understanding of dark matter and dark energy that comprises the bulk of the universe.
But a human landing on Mars or colonisation of the moon are unlikely. More travel to the moon is possible, but is there a chance of settling there? Certainly not in the coming decade.
NANOTECHNOLOGY: 'Plenty of room at the bottom'
The late American Nobel laureate Richard Feynman had observed in a 1959 lecture that “there is plenty of room at the bottom”, spawning the genesis of nanotechnology or the science of the ultra small, but the beauty of Feynman’s “staggeringly small world” has become evident only over the last two decades with the realisation of the tools to see, measure and manipulate matter at the nanoscale. And to give you an idea about the scale that we are talking about, a single strand of human hair measures 50,000 nanometres across.
Research in nanotechnology has diversified enormously, fuelled by massive improvement in electron microscopy, physical and chemical synthesis routes, emergence of the new class of materials (starting from graphene in 2004), and device technology to translate nano materials to product. The general physical properties of matter at nano-scale are relatively well-understood now, and there is a global effort to exploit these properties to achieve unique therapeutic methodologies, as well as materials and devices that can impact life directly.
Medicine is one area where the technology holds enormous promises. Breakthroughs are likely in areas ranging from wearable fitness technology that would monitor our health daily to electronic tattoos to sense vital signs. There could even be sensors inside the body and multi-billion pharmaceutical firm GSK is already pursuing research on electroceuticals. Also, scientists envision having nano-robots inside the blood. Such nanobots will swim in the bloodstream to deliver cancer drugs to the targeted cells without damaging others. This, however, is unlikely to be realised in the next 10 years as scientists have to overcome the challenge of understanding the toxic effects of such swarms of nanobots inside the blood and how to mitigate them.
More realistic possibilities are advancements in device miniaturisation and improvement in their performance. It’s entirely possible to have computers with storage capacity 10 times more or completely foldable laptops and mobile screens as well as foldable electronic newspapers. There could be nano-sensors on aircraft, bridges or nuclear power plants to monitor health so that minor problems don’t turn into a major operational issues. Paint industry is also an area that may be transformed as there would be paints with nanomaterials to keep your walls dry even in rain, resist scratches and make a tank vanish before the eyes of the enemy.
WATER: The hunt to harvest
Nanotechnology will play a crucial role in improving people’s access to water. Although oceans fill up two-thirds of the planet, scarcity of fresh water is severely threatening both agriculture and the availability of drinking water for regular household usage. The solutions that may be realised in the next decade will depend largely on nanotechnology and nanomaterials. Technological breakthroughs are expected to lower the energy requirement of the desalination process so that they become commercially viable. Removal of arsenic and fluoride using new materials and technology is entirely doable. Scientists have made progress in harvesting water from natural sources like humidity and fog, which may come closer to reality in the next 10 years.
With the advancement of artificial intelligence and better solutions to big data problems, what is likely to be realised is a Google Earth kind of platform on water resources, mapping the water usage of every household in the world and the nature of spending. Scientists believe this would not only automatically lead to enormous savings in water use, but also convert every civil infrastructure into a place to harvest and conserve water.
COMPUTATION: The big wave is coming
There are several low-hanging fruits to be realised within the next 10 years, but it would take decades to witness the full potential of quantum computing — the holy grail of computing. A foundation of the quantum computing’s backbone may be laid in the next 10 years.
Artificial intelligence, big data processing and IoT are beginning to change urban lives, even though their potential is far more. AI is the next big thing, which would result in self-driving vehicles, swarms of drones and rockets, robotic manufacturing, managing complex logistics and vertical farming. From stock markets to healthcare, AI will rule everywhere.
Riding on a 5G backbone, Internet of Things will make smart homes and offices a reality with remote and intelligent operations. In such homes and offices, every home appliance is connected and can be operated remotely. By 2025, it is projected that nearly 100 trillion devices will be connected through ‘smart’ interfaces with an economic impact between $2.7 to $6.2 trillion annually and IoT will change the fundamental nature of business. But all of them will pale before quantum communication technologies.
A future quantum computer could, for example, crack any of the modern common security systems — such as 128-bit AES encryption, the best one in the market — in seconds. Even the best supercomputer would take millions of years to do the same job. However, it would not be easy to get there, even though the US National Institute of Standards and Technology has predicted that quantum computers will be able to crack the 128-bit AES encryption by 2029. Scientists hope, in the next 10 years, a backbone for a global secure quantum communication network would be in place, but problems like what materials are to be used in quantum computers, what architecture is to follow and what types of protocols are needed in quantum communication may take a far longer time to resolve. A better understanding of the quantum world would also equip the scientists with weapons to cross the final frontier — the brain.
BRAIN: Cracking the cerebral codes
Every advancement in biology in the last century was aimed at the ultimate goal of treating diseases of the body. The ongoing century will see an equal, if not more, thrust on treating diseases of the mind as well, with an increasing pool of top-class biologists, physicists and computer scientists joining hands to unravel the mysteries of the brain.
Dementia is one such area that would progress enormously in the next 10 years as the disease now gets worldwide attention due to its huge economic consequence. The goal is now to identify early biomarkers that get activated two to three decades before the disease sets in. Early detection would lead to early intervention and better management of many such neurological illnesses.
As scientists try to crack the cerebral codes, they often face a handicap due to the absence of relevant disease models to come out with new drugs and diagnostics. Advancement in stem cell technology and creation of organoids provided good leads so far, but the next decade will witness rapid progress leading to an accelerated pace of drug development. An increasingly more number of scientists would also explore the brain as an integrated system along with the body's immune system or microbiome. The aim, once again, would be to find out the cure for diseases of the mind.
More fundamental questions like what defines cognition or whether there is free will, would have to wait longer for an answer.
GENETIC ENGINEERING: Look before you leap
Now, this one is a minefield. No doubt engineered microbes would bring revolutions in chemical and industrial processes, while advancements in RNA technology (as seen in Covid-19 vaccines) will overhaul vaccine development with its potential to create life-saving shots within weeks. But the big fear is whether technological progress would usher in an era of eugenics 2.0.
At the core lies CRISPR gene-editing technology — a tool so powerful that humans can even think of playing God. Chinese scientist He Jiankui’s feat of producing designer babies exacerbated such fears. There are two ways to use gene-alterations. It can be done through somatic editing to cure a particular disease or disorder caused by defective genes. This, in all probability, would emerge as a therapy. But, more dangerous would be germline editing, which would allow genetic changes to transmit to the next generation. Just think what would happen if traits like “good looks”, “athleticism” and “intelligence” become modifiable and hereditary. It's a complete no-no at the global scale and there are really tough scientific challenges to overcome, but scientists do fear the creation of a grey market for such designer babies somewhere in the world.