'Buyers are testing sellers’ patience': Why India’s record rice crop is set to deepen slide in global prices

Indian farmers are wrapping up another bumper rice harvest, adding a wave of grain to the global market that’s already well supplied and likely putting further pressure on benchmark prices.

They could bear the brunt at a time when demand is weak and key buyers have tightened import rules. Growers in India, the world’s biggest producer of the staple, may be forced to slash rates to stay competitive against rivals such as Thailand and Vietnam. 

“Buyers are testing sellers’ patience and waiting to see how far prices can fall in India amid a large domestic surplus,” said Nitin Gupta, deputy managing director at Olam India. World prices are likely to remain under pressure as reserves build across key producing regions, he said on the sidelines of the India International Rice Summit in Raipur on Friday.

Monsoon-sown rice output in the South Asian nation is estimated to have climbed to a record high of 124.5 million tons in the 2025-26 season, according to the country’s farm ministry. The crop is generally planted in June and July. 

Indian prices could drop by $15 to $25 a ton by March or April from the current level of about $350 because of a lack of near-term demand from buyers in Africa and the Middle East, Gupta said. 

Asia’s benchmark rice price fell more than 4% this week from Dec. 24, after climbing over a fifth from a 10-year low in late October, amid forecasts of declining exports from Thailand. Curbs by big importers such as the Philippines and Indonesia are hurting growers across Asia.

Global rice production is forecast to hit a record 558.8 million tons in 2025-26, driven by strong plantings in India, according to the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization. The output surge is likely to push global stockpiles to a new high, it said.