India’s unemployment rate slides in the first sign of economic recovery

By Anirban Nag,

India’s unemployment rate dropped sharply last week, in the first sign that Asia’s third-largest economy may be turning a corner after the world’s worst coronavirus outbreak.

The jobless rate for the week to June 13 fell to 8.7% from 13.6% a week ago, data from private research firm Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy Pvt. showed. Urban unemployment fell to 9.7% from 14.4%, while the rural measure declined to 8.2% from 13.3%.

That coincided with an improvement in mobility data as many Indian states lifted localized lockdowns imposed to curb the virus’s spread. Google’s Community Mobility Report data on public transport and workplaces show activity levels have started recovering in recent weeks while electricity consumption -- a widely used proxy to gauge demand in India’s industrial and manufacturing sectors -- is making a comeback.

“Looking ahead, lockdown stringency levels could be eased significantly by mid to end-July to levels seen before the spread of the second virus wave in March,” Bloomberg Economics’ Abhishek Gupta wrote in a report. “This would allow recovery momentum to pick up in the second quarter of fiscal 2022.”