In case the five Independents had come back to the Assembly and remained anti-Yeddyurappa, the total strength of the Opposition would have gone up to 103 (including Cong - 71, JD(S)-27). This would have been insufficient to dislodge the Yeddyurappa government in an Assembly of 211 members. The government would have been safe as it has 107 (including a nominated and an Independent member each) against the 103 of the combined Opposition.

The Chief Minister had proved his majority on October 14, with 106 members on his side in the House of 206 members. Only if the 11 disqualified MLAs, whose petition is being heard in the Supreme Court, come back to the Assembly and wish to remain anti-Yeddyurappa, then he will be in trouble.

At this juncture, Yeddyurappa is more worried over the petitions filed against him in a special court in Bangalore than the petitions challenging the Speaker’s order. The petitioners have levelled corruption charges against him. Even if an FIR is registered against him, pressure will mount on him to step down. But going by his statements and action, it is obvious that he is in no mood to step down.

Whatever may be the arithmetic, the court verdict has brought cheers to the BJP, in particular Yeddyurappa. The BJP can face the Opposition during the budget session of legislature starting on February 24, with enough numbers in its kitty.

It was the disqualified independent MLAs’ petition in the HC that the ruling party was more worried about than the 11 rebel BJP disqualified legislators’ appeal in the Supreme Court. The party had even deputed its legal eagle Arun Jaitley to specially monitor the developments in Karnataka and render his advice in the wake of the Independents challenging the Speaker’s order in court.

Why MLAs were disqualified?

The Speaker disqualified 16 MLAs invoking the provisions under the Anti-Defection Law of the 10th Schedule of the Constitution. The Chief Minister, in his petition to the Speaker, had argued that the act of withdrawing support to him attracted provisions under the law. The BJP demanded disqualification of five independent MLAs on these lines. The party had argued that because the Independents had identified with it and attended several party meetings, their act of withdrawal of support should also be viewed under the provisions of Anti-Defection Law. The Speaker upheld the argument and disqualified the 16 MLAs, including five independents.