Lebanon in vortex of problems

Long before the UN Security Council's belated proclamation of a global war against the Islamic State, Lebanon had become the third front in the war being waged in Syria and, recently, Iraq.

Unfortunately, Lebanon has neither the political will required to counter IS nor the means to manage the human spill-over from the conflict.

There is no political will because the country's main power blocks - and their external masters - are divided over Syria.  The Western and Saudi-supported Sunni-Christian coalition not only backs anti-government insurgents in Syria but has funnelled foreign fighters into Syria, hosted Syrian insurgents and provided Lebanese recruits for groups trying to oust Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. 

The competing Iran-backed Shia-Christian alliance supports the Syrian government and fighters from its dominant partner, the Shia Hizbollah movement, have enabled the Syrian army to contain insurgents.

Although the West, Saudi Arabia and Iran are now on the same side in the war against the IS, division over Syria continues to produce deadlock on the Lebanese domestic front. Analyst Marie Nassif-Debs told The Deccan Herald, “We have no president” because parliament cannot agree on a candidate.  Parliament’s “mandate finishes by October-end” when there should be an election but there is no agreement on when to hold the poll. “Without parliament, civil servants cannot be paid” and could go on strike.

The military council - which orders army operations against IS – “cannot take decisions unless all 24 ministers agree.” They disagree. “We need weapons and ammunition” but French arms have not been delivered because Paris did not accept the list submitted by the Lebanese military due to concern that the arms could be used against Israel.

Weapons given to Lebanon by the US are insufficient or inappropriate.
Interior Minister Nouhad Mashnouk went to Moscow to discuss a deal for Russian arms but, she observed, the US “would not allow such arms” due to the cold war between the West and Russia over the Ukraine.  

Jihadi groups

Since the conflict began in Syria, a multiplicity of jihadi groups connected with those in Syria have emerged in Lebanon’s northern port city of Tripoli and along the northeast border towns.  The Sunni frontier town of Arsal has become a base for IS and official al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra.  These groups clashed with the Lebanese army last month and took 29 soldiers and policemen hostage.  Five soldiers were freed, three murdered (two beheaded and one shot), and 21 remain captive.
               
Their families are exerting great pressure on the government to give in to the hostage-holders’ demand for the release of jihadis, some sentenced to hang. If the government releases them, more soldiers could be arrested and fresh demands made. In an abrupt reversal of the government's rejection any deal, Mashnouk said Beirut is prepared to consider the abductors’ demands.  This development followed Hizbollah’s declaration that it is not opposed to a prisoner swap.  On this single issue, there seems to be agreement.

But not on others, and, as one commentator put it, there is “no vision” on how to deal with the human spill-over from the Syrian conflict, the refugees. While a report prepared by the environment ministry says the number of UN registered refugees was 1087 in May, Lebanon has also received unregistered Syrian refugees, Palestinians from Syria, and Lebanese who had resided in Syria, making a total of 1.4 million, or 28.9 per cent of the total population.  By the end of this year, the figure may reach 1.8 million.

The influx has boosted Lebanon’s population density by 37 per cent from 400 to 520 persons per square kilometre and placed “a heavy burden on already fragile environmental resources,” the report states.

Lebanon is overwhelmed by increasing solid waste which is either dumped or burned, causing pollution of the land, ground water and atmosphere and creating health hazards. Water resources are being depleted at an accelerating rate and the quality of water is deteriorating. Environment Minister Muhamad Mashnouk told Deccan Herald there could be a severe shortage of water through October and November - when the seasonal rains are set to come, if they come.

Consumers are compelled to buy water delivered in lorries which contribute to traffic jams in the cities, especially in congested Beirut. Air pollution has increased because of rising levels of gases emitted by additional vehicles, residential heating plants, and electricity production.  Mashnouk says Lebanon buys electricity from war-torn Syria at a cost of $150 million. But this is not enough. Most of the country receives only four hours of government electricity a day and depends on polluting private generators.

When asked how Lebanon will cope once the World Food Programme (WFP) cuts refugee rations by 40 per cent due to a lack of funding, Mashnouk declared, “We cannot manage.”