Reliance Industries is likely to see a big cash-flow boost as projects of over $40 billion start to deliver in full swing this fiscal while capex falls, international brokerage house CLSA said on Wednesday.
In a report, CLSA said stabilisation of just-commissioned refinery off-gas cracker (ROGC) and petcoke gasification projects would boost EBITDA.
The downstream expansions called J3 are likely to fully stabilise in early 2018 and should allow almost a full year of benefit to flow in FY2019.
RIL, which completed its capital expenditure cycle, yesterday announced the commissioning of the world's largest refinery off-gas cracker complex at Jamnagar in Gujarat. ROGC will use refinery process residue to produce feedstock used to make petrochemicals.
It is in an advanced stage of commissioning petcoke gasification plant, which will convert coal and coke, the lowest-cost fossil fuels, into gas.
CLSA said monetisation of the two plants will boost the operating income of the company but full benefits will come only in the next financial year.
"Although it has indicated the potential annual benefit of $2-2.5 billion, we model a smaller amount of $1.8 billion from these two projects. Stabilisation of these projects would give a big boost to oil and gas earnings over 12-15 months," it said.
RIL's telecom venture, Jio, has achieved a critical mass with a subscriber base of around 160 million. It has also cornered nearly 80% of the 4G smartphone base.
The 4G smartphone base will expand as users replace their existing smartphones. "We expect Jio to get to 100 million 4G feature phones by March 2019," CLSA said.
It expects the company, which stormed the telecom world with its offer of free voice calls and cheap data, to monetise Jio's customers by gradually increasing average revenue per user, ramping up 4G feature phones, the launch of home broadband and start enterprise solutions.
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