Lok Sabha Elections 2024 | 2004 redux: How exit polls missed the mark again

Bengaluru: In a repeat of 2004, all pollsters failed to accurately predict the outcome of the 2024 parliamentary elections.

Only Dainik Bhaskar correctly forecast the number of seats won by the NDA but missed the mark on the I.N.D.I.A grouping's performance. It predicted 281-350 seats for the NDA and just 145-201 seats for I.N.D.I.A. 

Well-known pollsters Axis My India, C Voter and Today's Chanakya were way off the mark. Axis My India predicted 361-401 seats for the NDA and just 131-166 for I.N.D.I.A. Today's Chanakya, famous for its accurate prediction of the 2014 elections, also erred, forecasting 385-415 seats for the BJP-led coalition.

In a dramatic moment underscoring the exit polls' inaccuracies, Axis My India's head, Pradeep Gupta, was seen crying on national television as his firm's predictions proved incorrect. 

While Axis My India released its sample size, methodology and other details, most other pollsters did not.

Critics, including some Congress leaders, have questioned the pollsters' "inherent bias," pointing to the "under-representation" of female, poor, and rural voters. Some also accused them of conducting telephonic instead of face-to-face interviews with voters.

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