Straight fight between Congress and BJP-JD(S) combine in Lok Sabha polls in Karnataka

Bengaluru: It will to be a straight fight between the ruling Congress and the BJP-JD(S) combine in the Lok Sabha polls in Karnataka, where elections will be held in two phases on April 26 and May 7.

Karnataka has a total of 28 Lok Sabha constituencies. BJP won 25 seats in the 2019 general elections, while an independent backed by the party had also emerged victorious.

The Congress and JD(S), which were running a coalition government back then and fought the elections together, secured one seat each.

SWOT analysis of parties in Karnataka:

CONGRESS STRENGTHS: - Strong local leadership with Chief Minister Siddaramaiah, seen as a champion of backward classes and minorities, and Deputy Chief Minister D K Shivakumar, from the dominant Vokkaliga community, at the helm.

-AICC President Mallikarjun Kharge being from Karnataka may help consolidate Dalit vote base -Implementation of five poll guarantees after coming to power in the state.

-Strong campaign against BJP MPs' alleged inability to get 'justice' to the state with drought relief, release of central funds and clearances for development projects.

WEAKNESSES: -Inability to find strong winnable candidates in several Lok Sabha segments.

-Not-so-strong central leadership in comparison to PM Modi's for the BJP.

-Internal differences among leaders.

-Kharge and several top leaders not contesting the polls.

OPPORTUNITIES: -Congress being in power in the state.

-Further consolidating Minority votes.

-Make inroads into the opposition strongholds, after JD(S) joining hands with BJP.

-Anti incumbency against sitting BJP MPs.

THREATS: -Modi factor giving an edge to BJP.

-Factional feud coming into open -Vokkaliga and Lingayats' opposition to caste census report now with the government, working against Congress' prospects.

-Congress MP D K Suresh's separate south nation remarks & Rajya Sabha MP Syed Naseer Hussain supporters allegedly shouting 'Pakistan Zindabad' slogan at Vidhana Soudha getting magnified during electioneering.

BJP STRENGTHS: -Modi's charisma & development and social welfare programmes of the BJP-led NDA govt.

-A strong organisational base, backed by Sangh Parivar organisations, and a well-oiled election machinery of the party -Issues like Ram Mandir consecration, CAA implementation.

-Active campaigning of Lingayat strongman B S Yediyurappa, who has a pan-Karnataka appeal, with his son also now being the state BJP chief.

WEAKNESSES: Anti-incumbency faced by some sitting BJP MPs.

-Internal differences among state BJP leaders.

-disgruntlement among supporters of incumbent MPs who failed to get re-nomination.

-Negative image of the previous BJP government in the state on the issue of alleged corruption and maladministration.

OPPORTUNITIES: -Regaining the ground lost during the Assembly polls.

-Increasing support base in the Old Mysuru (south Karnataka) region, where it's weak, following alliance with JD(S).

-Tapping young voters.

-Congress facing challenges in finding strong winnable candidates in several segments.

THREATS: -Congress' campaign against BJP government at Centre alleging injustice to state in devolution of central taxes and grant in aid.

-Popularity of Congress government's five guarantee schemes working against the BJP.

-Congress' repeated allegations of BJP MPs’ inability to get justice to the state with drought relief, release of central funds and clearances for development projects.

-The alliance with the JD(S) failing to click on the ground.

JD(S) STRENGTHS: - Vokkaliga community backing.

- Regional party tag, coupled with Kannadiga identity pride.

-Goodwill among a section of rural masses due to a pro-farmer image.

-Modi charisma benefiting the party, as it is now part of NDA.

WEAKNESSES: -Contesting in only a few seats.

-Internal difference over alliance with BJP.

-Party's 'secular' image taking a hit because of alliance with BJP.

-Dynasty politics and 'family controlled party' image.

OPPORTUNITIES: -Possibility of better prospects because of alliance with BJP.

-Leveraging BJP's organisational strength and resources, and its support with vote transfer.

-Electoral win of the alliance giving an opportunity of national role for JD(S) leadership, if BJP-led NDA forms government at the centre.

-Arrest dissidence and exodus of leaders from the party.

THREATS: -Series of desertions.

-Prospects of the party losing its independent voice for regional aspiration, because it is now a junior partner to BJP.

-Congress perceived as a better bet by Vokkaligas, with Shivakumar (a Vokkaliga) being its state President and deputy Chief Minister.

-BJP's consistent efforts to make inroads into the Vokkaliga dominated Old Mysuru region.