AAP cautious, BJP hopes for default gain

The ruling Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has promised to propel Punjab on a growth trajectory, replicating Arvind Kejriwal’s Delhi governance model with better healthcare and better schools. But the development agenda of government led by Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann may get derailed if it fails to stem the secessionist undercurrent.

Punjab has gone through a political churning since the end of 2021. It has seen turncoats and new alliances. It has seen a new regime coming to power after the AAP had a landslide victory in March 2022. The growing radicalism may upset the apple cart of the AAP government though. Punjab is the only Sikh-majority state in the country, but it also has close to 39% of Hindu population. The BJP, which had an alliance with the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) for several decades, could garner only a miniscule vote share in the state.

But the attempts by Amritpal Singh and other radical leaders to rouse the secessionist sentiment may, in fact, polarize the Hindu voters of Punjab, with some advantage to the BJP, experts say. The rise of radicalism in AAP-ruled Punjab would also help the BJP seek votes on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s nationalism plank ahead of the parliamentary elections next year.

The BJP’s leaders in Punjab, including former chief minister, Capt Amarinder Singh, and Sunil Jakhar, who quit the Congress to join the saffron bandwagon, are keeping the ammunition dry before going whole hog.

After its alliance with the SAD ended over the controversial farm laws, the BJP has been keen to expand its own support base in the state. But its state unit will have to deliver more than just trying to cash in on the default gain.

The onus is on the AAP government to ensure law and order and peaceful environs conducive for investment. So, what does stop the ruling party from dealing with Amritpal Singh? The police exercised restraint when hundreds of radical protestors stormed the police station in Ajnala on February 24, carrying Sikh holy book Guru Granth Sahib. “A person who carries the Guru Granth Sahib as a shield to police stations cannot be called the ‘Waris’ (heir) of Punjab and Punjabiyat in any way,” tweeted the chief minister.

Mann is apparently aware that any police crackdown against Amritpal may end up turning him into a more popular figure and adding momentum to his movement. So, the government has rather preferred to confront him by calling him a “farce to his religious and other credentials”.

But the wait and watch approach of the government has a limit as it cannot be seen as abetting such acts that may undermine the authority of the state.