Gujarat Polls: Despite 2017 setback, BJP could woo Saurashtra this year

With the entire nation eyeing the upcoming Gujarat elections, the political parties are well aware of the significance that the Saurashtra region holds in determining the future of Gujarat leadership.

Accounting for 48 of the total 182 seats in the state, the sizeable Patidar and OBC population of the region has the potential to change the course of power play in the state, the impact of which the BJP had tasted back in 2017 Assembly polls where it was able to secure merely 19 seats down from 30 it bagged in 2012 Assembly elections.

The previous Assembly elections have proven that anti-incumbency is a real problem in Gujarat. Even this year, the number of chairs that lay empty amid PM Modi’s rally in Rajkot testified that the citizens of Saurashtra are slightly hard to please.

However, this time round the BJP’s rigorous campaign added to the undimmed aura of the "soil’s hero" Modi, hints at a better future for the saffron party in the region. It was no coincidence that PM Modi started his Gujarat campaign with the Saurashtra-Kutch region.

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Considering the past experience that the BJP has had in the region, PM Modi seems to have taken it upon himself to woo Saurashtra this time. In another speech in the state, asserting his relevance in taking Gujarat to heights, the Prime Minister said “Aa Gujarat main banavyu chhe (I have made this Gujarat).”

As the BJP is banking on the ‘Modi factor’ to improve its state tally, another factor that benefits the saffron party is the 27 years of power that it has had in the state.

“Modi se koi lena dena nahi hai(We have nothing to do with Modi)” said a resident of Rajkot in conversation with The Indian Express. She says that she will cast her vote for the BJP because the sarpanch of her village is a BJP leader and for them, “sarpanch is raja (king).”

Though the elector paid no heed to the PM, her vote is still booked for the BJP with or without the Modi influence, hinting at a strong preference of the BJP even in the tiny pockets of the region.

Another aspect that seems to be in favour of the BJP this time is that all the factors that played against the BJP in the preceding Assembly elections be it the ‘patidar andolan’ or the farmer distress have now faded.

The star of the patidar andolan, Hardik Patel is now in BJP and the farmer distress has lost its vigour.

Moreover, in these five years, the BJP has won nearly all the local elections of panchayats in Saurashtra.

Along with the BJP gaining its grip back, the Congress’s lack of zeal in the state and the AAP’s lacking roots in the state are other factors that may add to BJP’s victory in Saurashtra.