Maharashtra seat sharing dynamics to see change after state poll results

Mumbai: The dynamics involving seat sharing in Maharashtra would undergo a sea change in the wake of the results of the recently-concluded Assembly polls which the BJP winning over 50 per cent seats collectively in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Telangana even as the Congress lost two key states.

With the 2024 Lok Sabha polls and Vidhan Sabha elections in Maharashtra, it is a key challenge for the two diametrically-opposite and complex alliances - the Maha Yuti (NDA) comprising BJP, Eknath Shinde -led Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar-led NCP faction and the Maha Vikas Aghadi (INDIA) comprising Congress, Uddhav Thackeray-headed Shiv Sena (UBT) and Sharad Pawar-Supriya Sule-led NCP group.

With Maharashtra having 48 Lok Sabha seats and 288 Vidhan Sabha seats - spread over five vast regions of Mumbai-Konkan, Western Maharashtra, North Maharashtra, Marathwada and Vidarbha - the seat-sharing is going to be far more complex than thought.

Maharashtra accounts for the maximum Lok Sabha seats after Uttar Pradesh's 80.

“Since Maharashtra’s politics has undergone a change since 2019, the permutations and combinations of pre-2019 between the Congress-NCP Democratic Front and Shiv Sena-BJP saffron alliance, would no longer be applicable. The yardsticks are going to be different both for NDA and I.N.D.I.A opposition bloc,” sources from both the camps, told DH, on Monday.

With the disqualification proceedings in the Shiv Sena and NCP splits by 31 December, 2023 and 31 January, 2024, respectively, the western Indian state is abuzz with political activities.

In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP and undivided Shiv Sena contested 25 and 23 seats in Maharashtra and won 23 and 18, respectively, while on the other hand Congress and undivided NCP contested 25 and 19 seats, winning 1 and 4 seats respectively.

The BJP-Shiv Sena-NCP ruling coalition has set an ambitious target of winning 45 of the 48 Lok Sabha seats and 215 of the 288 Maharashtra Legislative Assembly seats. The other parties of the BJP-led Maha Yuti includes Ramdas Athawale-led Republic Party of India (Athawale), Hitendra Thakur-led Bahujan Vikas Aghadi, Bachchu Kadu-led Prahar Janshakti Party, Prof Jogendra Kawade-led People’s Republican Party, Sadabhau Khot-led Rayat Kranti Sanghatana, Vinay Kore-led Jansurajya Party, Mahadev Jankar-led Rashtriya Samaj Party.

“The election results would have a bearing on Maharashtra. It has further consolidated BJP’s commanding position. With the NDA setting a target of 340 to 350 Lok Sabha seats, winnability would be the key factor and not just the old formulae. On the other hand, the Congress, which is now the No 1 opposition party, would have to sail through rough weather during the seat sharing,” the sources said.

The MVA is yet to forge any formal alliance with Prakash Ambedkar-led Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi and Swabhimani Shetkari Sanghatana (SSS), a leading farmers’ group. Besides, in some pockets, it would face challenges from the K Chandrashekar Rao-led Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) and Asaduddin Owaisi-led All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM). “We have already started discussions on seat sharing and it is essential that all the parties are reasonable and practical in their demands,” a senior Congress leader said.