Meeting 2024 NCAP target could reduce nationwide disease prevalence to 3.09 per cent: Analysis

New Delhi: Achieving the target of reducing PM2.5 levels by 30 per cent under the National Clean Air Programme (NCAP) could bring down nationwide disease prevalence to 3.09 per cent from the current average of 4.87 per cent, according to a new tool launched on Tuesday.

Research group Climate Trends and IIT-Delhi unveiled the Health Benefit Assessment Dashboard at a consultation workshop held here.

The dashboard, based on data from the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5) across 641 districts, is the first of its kind to establish clear links between air pollution and public health in India.

The tool maps associations between PM2.5 pollution and diseases such as hypertension, heart disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), anaemia and diabetes among women aged 15 to 49, and anaemia, low birth weight and respiratory infections among children under the age of five.

India launched NCAP in 2019 with the goal of reducing 2017 particulate pollution levels by 20-30 per cent by 2024. In 2022, the government revised the target to a 40 per cent reduction by 2026 in 131 non-attainment cities.

According to the Energy Policy Institute at the University of Chicago's (EPIC) 2025 report published last month, residents of the cities covered under NCAP would see their life expectancy rise by two years compared to 2017 if the programme's targets are achieved.

Virinder Sharma, Technical Member, Commission for Air Quality Management in Delhi-NCR, said the health impacts of pollution remain "silent, invisible and diffuse".

He said people do not see the crisis immediately, as there's no "death certificate" for air pollution.

"Losses are happening, whether in Delhi-NCR hospitals, workplaces or through shortened lifespans, but the crisis is silent, invisible and diffuse," he said.

The health gains of clean air are expected to be greatest in densely populated northern and eastern states.

For instance, diabetes prevalence among women of reproductive age could decline from 1.7 per cent to 1.4 per cent if NCAP targets are met.

Children in high-pollution regions such as the Indo-Gangetic plain and eastern states stand to benefit the most from reductions in anaemia, low birth weight and respiratory infections.

Aarti Khosla, Director of Climate Trends, said public health should be the central concern of air quality mitigation.

"Over the last 10 years, as air quality became more of a scientific issue and increasingly linked with aspects like climate change, it has somewhat moved away from its social dimension as a public health concern primarily. I think bringing it back to where it belongs is critical," she said.

Professor Sagnik Dey of IIT-Delhi said the initiative was aimed at making scientific evidence accessible to policymakers and citizens.

"The idea is that, at the end of the day, the message should reach the public, and eventually, we can have a more effective way to involve everyone as part of the solution," he said.

Soumya Swaminathan, Chairperson of the MS Swaminathan Research Foundation, drew attention to indoor pollution.

She said that despite widespread LPG ownership under the Ujjwala scheme, many families still use biomass for cooking and heating.

This, she said, poses a health risk for women and children and contributes up to 60 per cent of outdoor air pollution.

She suggested a joint environmental health commission chaired by the Union health and environment ministers to address such challenges comprehensively.