Prices of Indian onions affected by weather extremes: Report

Mumbai: Indian onions, British potatoes, Californian vegetables, South African maize are among the many foods affected by recent price shocks driven by weather extremes, according to a global study.

The study — ‘Climate extremes, food price spikes, and their wider societal risks” — led by Maximillian Kotz of the Barcelona Supercomputing Centre, investigated 16 examples across 18 countries over a two-year period (2022-2024), where price spikes were associated with extreme heat, drought or heavy precipitation events, many of which were so extreme they exceeded all historical precedent prior to 2020.

In India, the price of onions and potatoes jumped by over 80 per cent in the second quarter of 2024 after a heatwave in May, a “largely unique event” that was made at least 1.5°C warmer by climate change, the study states.

“Until we get to net-zero emissions, extreme weather will only get worse, and its already damaging crops and pushing up the price of food all over the world. People are noticing, with rising food prices number two on the list of climate impacts they see in their lives, second only to extreme heat itself,” said Kotz, Marie-Curie post-doctoral fellow at the Barcelona Supercomputing Centre and lead author of the study.

“Sadly, when the price of food shoots up, low-income families often have to resort to less nutritious, cheaper foods. Diets like this have been linked to a range of health conditions like cancer, diabetes and heart disease,” added Kotz.

In California and Arizona in the United States, vegetable prices increased 80 per cent in November 2022 after the extreme summer drought in western states, which faced water shortages, extreme heat, and soil moisture drought conditions throughout the summer of 2022.

In Ethiopia, food prices were 40 per cent higher in March 2023 following the 2022 drought in the Horn of Africa, the worst in 40 years, which scientists said was made “much stronger” and “about 100 times more likely” by climate change.

In Spain and Italy, the 2022-2023 drought in southern Europe, for which scientists said “global warming contributed for more than 30 per cent of the (2022 summer) drought intensity and its spatial extent via enhanced evaporation”, drove an increase in the price of olive oil of 50 per cent year-on-year across the EU by January 2024, on top of price increases the previous year. Spain produces over two fifths of the world’s olive oil.

In the United Kingdom, potato prices increased 22 per cent (from Jan to Feb 2024) following extreme winter rainfall that scientists said was made 20 per cent heavier and 10 times more likely by climate change.

Global cocoa prices were almost 300 per cent (280 per cent) higher in April 2024 following the heatwave in Ivory Coast and Ghana just two months earlier, which scientists said was made 4°C hotter by climate change. Together, these two countries account for nearly two thirds (60 per cent) of global cocoa production.

The global coffee market has also taken serious hits. Brazil is the world’s biggest exporter of Arabica, while Vietnam is the biggest exporter of Robusta. Global coffee prices were 55 per cent higher in August 2024 following the 2023 drought in Brazil, which scientists said was made 10-30 times more likely due to climate change, while Robusta coffee prices were 100 per cent higher in July 2024 following record-breaking heat a few months earlier in Vietnam and across Asia.

Pakistan experienced a 50 per cent increase in rural food prices in weeks following the August 2022 floods, with monsoon rains 547 per cent above average and record-breaking cumulative weekly rainfall in July (200 mm) on already saturated soils as the pre-monsoon rainfall was 111 per cent higher than the long-term average since 1951.

In Mexico, fruit and vegetable prices were 20 per cent higher in January 2024 following the 2023 drought, one of the most severe droughts that Mexico has faced in more than a decade.

• The world has currently warmed by an average of about 1.3°C above pre- industrial levels, but analysis by the UN has found that the current trajectory is for around 3°C of warming, which it says will be ‘debilitating’.

• 2023, the hottest year ever recorded, was then overtaken by 2024. As early as December last year, experts at the Met Office predicted that 2025 will be one of the top three hottest years alongside them.

• While the 2023/24 El Niño likely played a role in amplifying these extremes, their increased frequency and intensity is in line with the expected and observed effects of human-induced climate change.