Tales and talks among neighbours: India and Bangladesh

Quick-paced developments have kept Bangladesh in the news since July. A spurt in communal tensions has taken the narrative to an ugly turn in recent weeks. To briefly recap, the July uprising of students, initially directed against the quota system in government jobs, soon grew in the face of the violence unleashed by the state, into a nationwide movement with a single-point demand: The removal of former prime minister Sheikh Hasina. Faced with heightening mass anger, her fleeing Bangladesh on August 5 led to an outbreak of violence and mayhem unprecedented in the recent history of Bangladesh. The seething public rage erupted through acts of vandalism, looting, intimidation and attacks directed against anyone and anything that was considered connected to the Awami League. The minorities in Bangladesh were not spared from the brunt of this violence too. 

Over the past decade, the Hindus in Bangladesh, with their dwindling numbers, have often faced intimidation and hostility.

Their properties have been a source of conflict between them and the local Muslim population. It was thus, a double whammy for the Hindus, who have traditionally been Awami League supporters. 

The takeover of the Cabinet by Chief Advisor Muhammad Yunus, on August 8, with a team of advisors that presently stands at 16 members has seen the nation slowly limp back to normalcy. Law and order on the streets has been restored with the much-maligned police force resuming their regular duties. 

My week-long visit in the middle of November, helped bust a few myths that were widely circulating about this vital neighbour, especially in social media.

Certainly, it was a pleasure to land at the Shahjalal International Airport in Dhaka, which was generally more bustling, but several hotel representatives with name cards crowded the arrival area. The Bangladeshi spirit was reflected in the usual traffic jams being managed by traffic police, hotels and malls enjoying normal business, and cafes spread across the city filled with youthful chatter and music.

Political stability was a point of discussion at the international conference I was invited to, but most seemed upbeat about Bangladesh’s future. 

Drastic political changes

The interim government is a reality that has been widely acknowledged and its ultimate legality will have to be determined by a subsequent elected government, which will need to ratify its actions. It will take a while for Bangladesh to overcome the past months of uncertainty. Given the deep economic crevice it has fallen into due to past years of continued irregular financial practices, combined with the drastic political changes, there are several challenges ahead for Bangladesh. In some parts, social cohesion now seems like it is being severely tested.

While the final objective of the Interim Cabinet will be to ensure free and fair elections, the path is strewn with complexities. Apart from the interim administration, the other stakeholders who have been part of the political change also have their own ideas about the Bangladesh that they want to see emerge. Having met with two of the student leaders who are now in the Cabinet and a few of the advisors, as well as a Jamaat leader, all seem to converge on elections being the roadmap for the nation’s political stability. The sticking point is when and how. 

That apart, the divergence over the question of the Awami League’s participation was evident. The Bangladesh Nationalist Party would much rather have a diluted Awami League as their political opponent alongside other political parties including Jamaat. The party also prefers immediate elections. The Jamaat, while organisationally very strong, has its electoral limitations and is urging for reforms before the nation is ready for elections. The student leaders did mention the possibility of a new political party, but their electoral strength will naturally be limited, and much would depend on their ability to draw in acceptable leadership from across the political landscape. Immediate elections thus may not work in their favour. The students are the face of the July movement, and their sacrifice should be acknowledged but the post-uprising period has to be an inclusive process.

With Bangladesh grappling with high food inflation and economic stagnation, the expected $6 billion loan for reforms from development partners by next June will be helpful support.

Bilateral relations

Apart from the economic woes, the Interim Cabinet has been struggling with the law-and-order situation. A fresh round of communal tensions has grown following the arrest of former ISKCON priest Chinmoy Krishna Das on sedition charges. The government was clearly unprepared to deal with his supporters and their reaction to his arrest. The mayhem led to lawyer Saiful Islam being hacked to death. The subsequent outbreak of communal violence has had a ripple effect across Indian borders. A viral video appearing/claiming to show Bangladesh students trampling the Indian flag led to furious reactions in different parts of eastern India. And Sheikh Hasina’s political statements emanating from Indian soil have further reinforced the bilateral unease.

Although faced with the sudden turn of events since August, India has maintained political contact with Bangladesh’s Interim Cabinet. The Indian High Commissioner to Bangladesh recently expressed India’s readiness to engage with Bangladesh’s interim government and commitment to working together. This underlines India’s intention towards its neighbour. However, India’s voiced concerns about the reported periodic violence against Hindus in Bangladesh have caused some consternation in Dhaka. The minority issue has been made shriller by hyperactive social media on both sides. 

Several incidents of Islamist groups trying to enforce conservative social norms, the release of numerous Islamists — albeit many who had completed their remand term — have led to a popular perception in India about an ‘Islamist takeover’ of Bangladesh. The complications have grown with huge volumes of misinformation and propaganda floating around, compounded by a few of the student leaders making populist anti-India statements, and some factually incorrect information being shared by a few Interim Cabinet members.

Bangladesh is India’s largest trade partner in the region and the political crises has disrupted the Indo-Bangladesh supply chain link, especially in the readymade garment industry, as production units have been affected. The transit agreements that used to benefit cargo movement for both sides have been stalled. Similarly, a state of uncertainty revolves around many Indian fast-moving consumer goods companies spread over Bangladesh, that are slowly resuming their operations. 

India and Bangladesh were in the middle of negotiating a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), which would have addressed much of the Bangladeshi concerns surrounding trade and commerce.

As both nations navigate this fraught landscape, continued dialogue and diplomatic engagement will be crucial. Thus, the visit of the Indian Foreign Secretary to Dhaka will be a positive development towards reassessing the dynamic situation and seeking mechanism to resolve the outstanding bilateral issues. India and Bangladesh are destined to work together, the earlier they manage the distractions, the better for all. 

(The writer is Professor, Jindal School of International Affairs, O P Jindal Global University in Haryana)