Post-Karur stampede, the political options before Vijay—to go solo or ally with NDA

Will Vijay be willing to dump his independent identity and ally with the NDA or AIADMK minus the BJP.

Chennai: Over two weeks have passed since 41 people died in a stampede in actor-politician Vijay’s rally in Karur. But the man at the center of the row, Vijay, continues to wield a golden silence, even as Tamil Nadu politics has been centered around him. 

Even when the Supreme Court handed out a victory to him by transferring the Karur case to the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) after junking a one-man commission appointed by the DMK government, Vijay merely said, “truth will prevail.” 

Vijay’s measured reaction was in stark contrast to the reactions from BJP and AIADMK leaders who said justice will be served to the families of the victims, as an “impartial probe” by the Tamil Nadu Police would not have brought the truth to light. 

 On the other side of the political spectrum, the DMK and its alliance partners went on overdrive to portray the transfer of the case to the CBI as Tamilaga Vetri Kazhagam’s (TVK) “surrender” before the BJP, terming it as a development that will set the ball rolling for the actor to join the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) for the 2026 polls. 

As Vijay continues to maintain a stoic silence, the intention of camps led by the AIADMK-BJP and DMK are clear – the former want him to join the NDA to prevent a multi-way split of anti-government votes, while the latter wishes that the actor contests alone. 

 In fact, it is the public statements of BJP and AIADMK leaders supporting the actor -- in a departure from their previous stance of criticizing him -- that have lent credence to speculation about whether the NDA was inviting Vijay with its arms open. On its part, the AIADMK has been quite enthused over the presence of TVK’s yellow and maroon flags in its meetings, hinting that a beginning has been made to stitch an alliance. 

However, the biggest question is whether Vijay will be willing to dump his independent identity -- he commands a massive fan following -- and ally with the NDA or AIADMK minus the BJP. 

 The choice Vijay faces is whether his TVK should wait for its turn to govern the state by contesting the 2026 elections independently and building the organization or prioritize defeating the DMK in the upcoming election by stitching an alliance. 

 While the TVK and AIADMK coming together won’t invite criticism of an ideological contradiction, the combine might even possess the ability to turn the wind in its favor and defeat the DMK. However, the going might get tough for the actor-politician post-2026 elections, especially dealing with the politically shrewd AIADMK chief Edappadi K Palaniswami, who has systematically eliminated challengers within the party by expelling them at the right time.

Vijay joining the NDA could spell doom for his political future not merely because he has identified the BJP as his ideological enemy, but such a move will also alienate the significant minority population of about 17 per cent in Tamil Nadu from him. Political analysts say it will be tough for Vijay to justify such an alliance with the BJP even if he projects it as the only option to defeat the DMK, which will use such a development to its advantage. 

 And no alliance with the BJP as a constituent has won any polls in Tamil Nadu since 2019. 

 This leaves Vijay with the option of contesting alone in the 2026 elections provided he is serious about his Chief Ministerial ambitions. Contesting alone in the first election will help Vijay assess his political standing, test his support base, and use the vote percentage his party gets in the elections as a bargaining chip to lead an alliance in the future, the analysts say. 

 Senior journalist Maalan Narayanan said Vijay’s first priority would be to redeem his party and its esteem in the run-up to the 2026 elections. He warned that Vijay’s supporters might move from one end to another if the TVK opts for an alliance in its debut election.

“Neither Vijay nor people around him will agree to an alliance as their interests are linked to his political career. I believe Vijay will try to maintain his independent identity and refrain from publicly allying with the AIADMK,” Narayanan told DH.

 However, the journalist did not rule out the possibility of Vijay and the AIADMK coming to a “secret understanding” to protect their interests and take on the common enemy, the DMK, which believes that the actor would pose a serious challenge to deputy chief minister Udhayanidhi Stalin, if not his father and Chief Minister M K Stalin. 

 “I believe the battle lines for the 2026 assembly elections have been drawn. I don’t think Vijay will go for an alliance with the AIADMK next year, but He might explore alliance opportunities if things don’t go well in 2026. But if things go according to his plan, he might just prepare himself to lead an alliance, probably in 2029 or 2031,” he added.