BJP’s Haryana Dilemma: Balancing OBC consolidation and Jat vote split

As the Assembly elections approach, the BJP’s ability to address agrarian concerns while maintaining its reform agenda could be decisive.

As Haryana gears up for its assembly elections on October 1, the political landscape is fraught with tension and high stakes, particularly for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Following a disappointing showing in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, where it lost ground in key Hindi heartland states including Haryana, the BJP faces a crucial test. This decline has fortuitously played into the hands of the Congress and other opposition parties, setting the stage for an intense electoral contest.

Strategically positioned between Delhi, where the BJP lacks legislative control, and Punjab, under the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP)’s governance, Haryana’s importance cannot be overstated. The state’s 90 Assembly constituencies reflect a complex political fabric. In the 2019 elections, despite leading with 40 seats, the BJP could only form a government by allying with the Jannayak Janta Party (JJP), which added 10 seats to the coalition. However, internal conflicts and the subsequent withdrawal of the JJP’s support have led to significant political realignment, with Manohar Lal Khattar being replaced by Nayab Singh Saini as chief minister.

The upcoming elections promise a fiercely contested battle among the BJP, the Congress, the JJP, and AAP, each navigating a volatile electorate and fluid alliances. These elections will not only serve as a litmus test for the BJP’s policies and leadership changes, but also as a barometer for regional and national political currents.

BJP's OBC outreach in Haryana

To regain traction in the assembly elections, the BJP is focusing on consolidating its OBC support. Union Home Minister Amit Shah has been engaging with the OBC community, highlighting initiatives such as increased income limits for the creamy layer and reservation in government jobs. The party has appointed Saini, an OBC, as the chief ministerial face, appealing directly to the OBC voters. This strategic outreach aims to leverage identity politics and position the BJP as the best representative of OBC interests, crucial in a state where the OBCs comprise over 50% of the population.

Saini’s appointment as chief minister is a calculated move by the BJP to engage the significant OBC electorate, which makes up nearly 44% of the state’s voters. As a member of the Saini community, which constitutes about 8% of Haryana’s population and wields considerable influence in several key districts, his leadership aims to solidify this crucial voter segment for the BJP, enhancing the party’s prospects amid growing political challenges.

Jat discontent

In the political heartland of Haryana, the BJP is confronting significant unrest within the Jat community, which makes up about 27% of the state’s population. This discontent arises from unresolved issues such as demands for reservations, perceived neglect during the farmers’ protests, and controversies surrounding the Agniveer scheme. Given that the Jats influence nearly half of the assembly constituencies, their dissatisfaction poses a critical challenge for the BJP. With the assembly elections approaching, the party must address and navigate these grievances carefully to maintain its electoral stronghold.

Farmer discontent and policy reform

The BJP’s challenge in Haryana highlights a significant dilemma: balancing agricultural reforms with widespread dissatisfaction among farmers. The state’s farmers, central to both its economy and politics, have vocally opposed recent agricultural policies, leading to significant policy reversals. This unrest has implications for the BJP’s electoral prospects, turning the farmers’ agitation into a crucial test of the party’s political strategy, and its commitment to rural constituents. As Assembly elections approach, the party’s ability to address agrarian concerns while maintaining its reform agenda could be decisive. The outcome will reflect the BJP’s adeptness at navigating complex policy landscapes and appeasing a critical voter segment.

When the BJP introduced the three controversial farm laws (which were subsequently repealed), Haryana’s farmers were prominently at the forefront of the protests.

Anti-incumbency factor

In Haryana’s volatile political landscape, the BJP’s decision to replace Khattar with Saini was aimed at countering anti-incumbency pressures. This leadership transition, however, has not significantly alleviated public concerns about law and order and unemployment issues that plagued Khattar’s tenure.

The Congress, led by the experienced Bhupinder Singh Hooda, is leveraging these ongoing issues to strengthen its position. Hooda’s tactical experience presents a formidable challenge to the BJP’s aspirations for a third consecutive term. As the Assembly elections approach, this becomes a critical test of the BJP’s revised strategies in navigating both public dissatisfaction and intense political competition. The looming question is whether these adjustments will suffice to sway voter sentiment in its favour or if the shadow of past grievances will dominate the electoral mood.

JJP factor

The rift between Dushyant Chautala’s JJP and the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance marks a critical juncture for the BJP in Haryana. The JJP’s departure strips the BJP of crucial caste-based support, particularly from non-Jat communities, which had bolstered the coalition’s strength. This split not only exposes the BJP to the effects of anti-incumbency, but also positions the JJP as a potential spoiler in the elections, potentially diverting non-Jat votes away from the BJP. If talks of the JJP aligning with Congress materialise, this could significantly complicate the BJP’s campaign strategy and diminish its chances in the forthcoming Assembly elections. This realignment could decisively impact the electoral landscape, underscoring the fluid dynamics of regional politics.

Congress resurgence

The resurgence of the Congress in Haryana, as evidenced by the recent Lok Sabha elections, poses a significant threat to the BJP’s dominance in the upcoming polls. The Congress has managed to nearly double its vote share since 2019,(29% vote share in the 2019 general elections and 49% vote share in the 2024 general elections) signalling a strong comeback and potentially reshaping the state’s political landscape.

This revival is particularly notable in Jat-dominated regions where Congress has consolidated support, effectively challenging the BJP’s reach in these crucial areas. Additionally, the Congress’ improved performance across various demographics, including securing victories in reserved constituencies most importantly Dalits, indicates a broader appeal that could sway the electoral balance.

The BJP, facing anti-incumbency and internal challenges, finds itself at a critical juncture, needing to reassert its relevance amidst a galvanised Opposition. 

(Sayantan Ghosh teaches journalism at St Xavier's College (Autonomous), Kolkata. X: @sayantan_gh.)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.