Caste Census | BJP risks unravelling its social coalition

The Narendra Modi government’s announcement to conduct a caste census signals a decisive break from the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)’s long-standing ambiguity on caste-based enumeration.

While it may appear to be a tactical masterstroke aimed at neutralising the Opposition’s rising demand for ‘jitni abaadi, utna haq’, the move also marks the beginning of a politically precarious journey. Far from being a mere data-gathering exercise, this decision is likely to catalyse a new wave of caste consciousness — particularly in the Hindi heartland — reviving complex debates around identity, equity, and representation.

For over a decade, the BJP deployed a sophisticated model of social engineering to contain identity politics. Through a calibrated blend of welfarism, subaltern Hindutva, and the mobilisation of non-dominant OBCs and SCs, it constructed a durable electoral coalition. Welfare schemes were not merely developmental instruments, but political tools aimed at incorporating marginalised communities into the party’s ideological framework. These material benefits were overlaid with a unifying cultural narrative of Hindu pride, subtly diluting intra-caste divisions.

The promise of a caste census threatens to disrupt this carefully calibrated equilibrium. Even its mere announcement is being hailed as a victory for social justice politics, and is poised to further solidify identity-based mobilisation among historically deprived communities. Once caste-based data is made public, demands will inevitably rise to restructure the reservation architecture — raising questions about the Supreme Court’s 50 per cent cap, the need for sub-categorisation within OBCs, and the evolving criteria for defining the creamy layer. The legitimacy of the Economically Weaker Sections (EWS) quota — extended to upper castes without historical disadvantage — will also come under intensified scrutiny.

The BJP now finds itself at a strategic crossroads. One possible approach is to co-opt the pro-OBC and SC/ST narrative by appearing responsive while slowing down the caste census implementation. By linking the caste census to the larger national census, the party could gain political credit without incurring immediate structural disruption. This strategy allows it to occupy the moral high ground while buying time.

The second, more Machiavellian option, is to engineer controlled ambiguity. By allowing multiple, conflicting narratives — regarding quota expansion, sub-categorisation, EWS entitlements, and creamy layer definitions — to circulate simultaneously, the BJP may fragment the coherence of the Opposition’s message. In such a scenario, identity politics may lose its electoral sharpness, especially if competing caste claims begin to clash. This could allow the BJP’s traditional messaging — focused on nationalism, governance, and stability — to reassert dominance.

However, both approaches carry significant political risk. Any appearance of stalling could alienate backward communities whose aspirations for equity and representation have been reawakened. 

Conversely, conceding to demands for proportional representation would require a bold restructuring of India’s entrenched political architecture — long skewed in favour of upper castes — and could provoke resistance from upper-caste groups and dominant OBCs, both of whom constitute core pillars of the BJP’s social coalition.

The Opposition — led by the Congress and Mandal-era regional outfits — has refined its counter-narrative. It frames the caste census not merely as a statistical exercise, but as a vehicle for redistributing power and reconfiguring elite spaces. The real debate is about dismantling the historical underrepresentation of backward communities in politics, bureaucracy, academia, and media.

India has not conducted a caste census since 1931, yet independent estimates suggest that OBCs constitute between 45-52 per cent of the population, Scheduled Castes 16.6 per cent, and Scheduled Tribes 8.6 per cent. Collectively, these groups comprise nearly three-quarters of the population, yet remain severely underrepresented in positions of power and influence. This asymmetry in social stratification lies at the heart of contemporary demands — not merely for representation, but for structural justice.

The BJP’s recent political dominance was built on the ruins of a discredited Mandal-era leadership. Despite promising psychological empowerment, many OBC and Dalit leaders ultimately replicated the hierarchies they once opposed — indulging in corruption, dynastic politics, and narrow sub-caste agendas. This created a vacuum, which the BJP filled with a narrative of aspirational governance and a homogenised Hindu identity. But welfare politics has reached a saturation point. The social base that once felt grateful is now increasingly assertive and aspirational. These communities now demand proportional power, equitable resource distribution, and structural transformation.

Historically, Brahmins and upper castes, who together constitute less than 5 per cent of India’s population, dominated the political and administrative order — particularly in North India. In Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, they held more than half of all chief ministerial posts after Independence. While the Mandal movement disrupted this dominance, it did not dismantle it. The contemporary push for caste enumeration is, at its core, a demand to realign elite composition in accordance with demographic realities.

The caste census may become increasingly unmanageable for the BJP as it risks opening a Pandora's box of complex and divisive issues. While the caste census itself is not the primary issue, it is the questions surrounding the reservation ceiling could pose significant challenges. The BJP seems to have misinterpreted the 2024 setback, which was more about the backlash against the narrative of potential dismantling of reservations, rather than a demand for caste enumeration alone.

However, in politics, some moves are irreversible. The caste census is one such inflexion point. While it may yield short-term electoral dividends for the BJP, it has also unleashed a deeper social churn that could redefine the contours of Indian democracy. Managing this transformation will require more than tactical manoeuvring; it will necessitate a new grammar of social justice and representational equity.

Whether the BJP — led by an OBC prime minister — can adapt to this emerging challenge or is eventually overtaken by it, will shape the next phase of India's democratic journey.

(Mahendra Kumar Singh is a political commentator and teaches Political Science at DDU Gorakhpur University, Uttar Pradesh. X: @MKSinghGkp.)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.