CoP28: A big gain, and some quibbles

A plan for a climate transition has been agreed upon. Developed countries, China need to do better to put that into action

As the gavel was struck on 13 December to mark the agreement at CoP28, it signalled more than just the usual closure of another United Nations climate negotiation. This time, the setting was Dubai, presided over by the CEO of one of the world’s biggest oil companies, and the subject was fossil fuels -- a topic historically untouched in the annals of these discussions.

For three decades, the international community had avoided the direct mention of fossil fuels in climate agreements. The burning of coal, oil, and gas – the primary drivers of global warming – remained a spectre haunting negotiations, unacknowledged due to the staunch resistance from major oil and gas producers. These countries have historically drawn a red line, refusing to recognise the necessity of phasing down oil and gas to address the climate crisis.

However, CoP28 shattered this status quo. The decision to transition away from fossil fuels, made in a petrostate and against the preferences of OPEC (Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries), marks a significant leap towards acknowledging and addressing the root cause of climate change.

The agreement, aiming for a “just, orderly, and equitable transition away from fossil fuels,” is a nuanced wording to start reducing the production and consumption of fossil fuels. While it is not an explicit call for a phase-down or a phase-out, it sends an unmistakable message to the fossil fuel industry: the era of unchecked fossil fuel consumption is drawing to a close.

Yet, CoP28 will be remembered for more than just this ground-breaking agreement. It also will be remembered for operationalising the Loss and Damage Fund on the very first day of the conference to support vulnerable developing countries in dealing with climate disasters. While the initial pledges to the fund remain at about $800 million (with the host the UAE contributing $100 million and the US just $17.5 million), which is far less than what is needed, the operationalisation of the fund marks an important milestone in the climate justice movement.

Sub-optimal GST

But not all went well. The shortcomings of the Global Stocktaking (GST) process were glaringly evident. This critical element of the Paris Agreement, designed to assess global progress in addressing climate change, had nothing new to add to what had already been published by scientific bodies like the IPCC. The failure of the GST to assign clear responsibility and provide actionable guidance to countries to enhance ambitions for the 2025 emission reduction pledges was a significant missed opportunity. Especially concerning was its failure in highlighting the unfulfilled commitments of developed nations and its apparent leniency toward China, the world’s largest emitter. This oversight has undermined the process’ credibility.

The fact is that the developed countries have consistently not met any of their commitments on emissions reduction or financial support. They continue to invest in new fossil fuel infrastructure and emit more than their fair share. For instance, the US presently is the largest producer of oil and gas, producing nearly a quarter of global natural gas and 15% of the world’s crude oil. And there is no sign that it is phasing down fossil fuels as the Biden administration has recently approved new offshore oil and gas leases. 

The developed countries have also not met their collective finance obligations of proving $100 billion to the developing countries. On the other hand, China’s GHG emissions, which is a quarter of the global emissions, needs to peak and reduce quickly to have any chance of meeting the 1.5 OC target. Yet, GST failed to point out these crucial issues. The lessons from the first GST are that global climate action needs more than just pledges; it demands accountability, transparency, and equitable responsibility-sharing.

Business takes centre stage

CoP28 marked a significant shift in the character of global climate conferences, with the robust presence of the business sector. Industry leaders, CEOs of major oil companies, and financiers were present in significant numbers, each bringing their perspective to the climate table. While some critics
likened the event to a trade show, voicing concerns over the influence of business interests and lobbyists
in climate negotiations, this criticism overlooks a crucial aspect of climate action: the indispensable role
of businesses.

There is a growing recognition in the business world about the threats and opportunities presented by the climate crisis. This shift in perception is crucial to realign capital away from climate-damaging activities toward sustainable practices. The large presence of businesses at CoP28 suggests that this realignment may be starting to take shape.

For years, experts in sustainable development have advocated for a synergy between environmental concerns and business interests. CoP28 can be seen as a tangible step toward this goal. It highlighted that the path to a sustainable future is not just the responsibility of governments and environmental activists but also of the corporate world.

India’s gain

At CoP28, India’s role as a pivotal player in shaping the global climate agenda was unmistakably evident, building on its momentum from the G-20 presidency. The adoption of the Delhi Declaration’s goals, like tripling of renewable energy capacity and a doubling of energy efficiency improvement by 2030, into the CoP28 agreement is a testament to India’s growing influence in global climate discourse.

India’s steadfast advocacy for a comprehensive approach to fossil fuel reduction also saw fruition. At CoP27 in Sharm-el-Sheikh last year, India was the first country to demand a phase-down of all fossil fuels, and not just coal, to accelerate climate action. This year’s agreement on transitioning away
from fossil fuels can be seen as a direct result of India’s initiative last year. Further, Prime Minister Modi’s
call in Dubai for sustainable consumption patterns found resonance in the ‘UAE Consensus’.

Overall, the ‘UAE Consensus’ is a bold shift in the climate action. Central to this shift is the emerging narrative of a just, orderly, and equitable transition away from fossil fuels -- a theme that will increasingly dominate global discourse as countries internalise the imperative of shutting down fossil fuel establishments and building a new green economy. 

(The writer is CEO, iFOREST, New Delhi)