Donald Trump’s trade war just lost India

Donald Trump’s ongoing humiliation of India has made it politically untenable for any Indian leader to actively rebuild ties with the US

The setback in India-US ties no longer appears to be a temporary glitch, and the camaraderie among BRICS partners, especially Brazil, Russia, India, and China, could evolve into a greater partnership if the opportunity is seized. If both developments materialise in the near future, the global order, as we’ve seen over the past couple of decades, will unravel.

US President Donald Trump’s September 1 post on Truth Social that India has “now offered to cut their Tariffs to nothing, but it’s getting late. They [India] should have done so years ago”, cements the above view. 

The breakdown in India-US ties has been sudden, and dramatic! In February, Modi’s meeting with Trump was largely cordial, except for the issue of illegal immigrants. It seemed both leaders had picked up from where they had left off during Trump’s first term. However, things soon took a turn for the worse — first, Trump took credit for the India-Pakistan ceasefire — again and again, then the 25 per cent tariffs, followed by a 25 per cent penalty for buying Russian oil. From ‘Howdy Modi’ to ‘Namaste Trump’ to ‘dead economy’ to ‘Modi’s war’ — the fall was quick. Only artificially inflated dodgy cryptos fall quicker.

Eternal optimism

From here, the best-case scenario is a return to where the bilateral ties were before this freefall. Perhaps Trump will have a revelation and roll back the tariffs; yes, that is a possibility, given the unpredictability that defines this White House. Perhaps, the next POTUS will value better ties with India. In either case, which says a lot about Washington’s diplomacy and the way it treats its allies, the scars left by the Trump administration are unlikely to heal anytime soon.

Economic statecraft and realpolitik will ensure that trade ties continue, even in these headwinds. After all, the US is the largest economy, and India cannot afford to disengage. But this ongoing humiliation has made it politically untenable for any Indian leader to actively rebuild ties with the US. Former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh staked his government on the India-US nuclear deal, and Modi invested a good part of his personalised diplomacy in improving ties with the US. Trump’s actions show little regard for these efforts. Modi, or his successor, will have a hard time convincing the nation to rebuild strong ties with the US.

Twisting the knife

India might have overlooked Trump’s ‘ceasefire’ claims had they not been repeated ad nauseam, and might have taken the 25 per cent tariff in its stride — after all, the US is imposing it across the board. What truly stung, both the government and the public, was the Trump administration’s use of Pakistan and its General Asim Munir to rile India, and that too shortly after the four-day conflict between the subcontinent neighbours in May. His comment on July 31, that Pakistan might “be selling oil to India some day”, was the US president twisting the knife in the wound for good measure.

By imposing a 25 per cent penalty on India for buying Russian oil, after previously encouraging its purchase to stabilise global oil prices, Washington is playing dirty. Worse, China, which imports more Russian oil than India, faces no penalties. India and the US were supposed to be allies or friends, and this is not how they are treated.

Busted myths

This downward spiral has busted many myths about India-US ties. The biggest is that US-India ties enjoy bipartisan support in Washington. Except for an odd murmur here or there, this support is conspicuously absent. This is partly because Trump is not a traditional US politician who fits into existing moulds and follows the party line. New Delhi should have anticipated this and recalibrated its approach accordingly.

Another myth is regarding the power of India’s diaspora in the US. Trump’s overwhelming support from the US’ Right has blunted this diaspora’s ability to influence policy in either party. This has also busted the myth that the ideologies and goals of the Right-wing in both countries align. Someone should interview those in India who prayed for Trump’s victory and celebrated when he won.

Mistrust of China

The SCO summit at Tianjin gains significance in this context. Videos from the second day of the summit show Modi, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping displaying a bonhomie that could be mistaken for a college old boys' reunion.

Still, India’s deep-seated suspicion and mistrust of China is so deep that it will take more than optics at a summit or the resumption of flights. Progress on border tensions, meaningful trade initiatives, and co-operation in counterterrorism—especially regarding Pakistan — would be a start towards confidence building.

In its efforts to strengthen ties with Russia and China, India must not overplay its hand leaving no room for strategic divergence in future. Also, when it comes to strengthening India-China ties, the elephant in the room is Pakistan — China’s ‘all-weather friend’ and India’s long-standing adversary.

That said, this may be a rare opportunity. India and China need to mend fences, and ironically, Trump may have brought the two Asian giants together. If this happens and greater economic co-operation and regional peace are achieved, Trump may yet again claim a Nobel-worthy achievement.

Conclusion

In just a few weeks, Trump and his administration have undone decades of effort by Washington and New Delhi to build strong bilateral ties. His actions have wounded the pride of a nation — India — which, after decades of stonewalling the US, was getting used to being its important ally in the region.

The next time, Washington were to extend a hand of friendship, a wary India will cautiously assess the length of the dagger in the other hand.