<p>The exodus from the BJP in Uttar Pradesh of a number of ministers, legislators and leaders, most of them belonging to the Other Backward Classes (OBC), has imparted a new element to the electoral scene in the state. Three cabinet ministers and nine MLAs have resigned from the party till now, accusing Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath and the party leadership of ignoring the concerns of Dalits, backwards, farmers, unemployed youth and traders. Those who left the party include some influential leaders of important OBC caste groups. Desertions from parties are common before elections, mainly because of denial of ticket. But the exodus from the BJP in UP may have reasons other than personal grievances. It goes without saying that a change in the caste combinations that make the electoral arithmetic in the state will have an impact on the outcome of the elections. </p>.<p>The BJP’s impressive victories in UP in the last few elections, including the 2019 Lok Sabha elections and the sweep of the 2017 Assembly elections, were the result of the consolidation of the votes of Hindu forward castes, non-Yadav OBCs and non-Jatav Dalit groups. But there are cracks in this combine now. The Jats, who had supported the BJP after the 2013 communal riots in Muzaffarnagar, are alienated now after the farmers’ agitation. Yogi Adityanath’s pro-Rajput image is said to have estranged a section of the Brahmin community. In five years of his rule, the focus is seen to have been more on ‘Kamandal’ than on ‘Mandal’. A dent in the OBC votes is bound to hurt the BJP in the elections. That the disaffected OBC leaders all made a beeline to the Samajwadi Party should further worry the BJP because the SP is the strongest challenger to the ruling party, given the emaciation of Mayawati’s BSP and that the Congress’ revival under Priyanka Gandhi is at best still work in progress. </p>.<p>The narrative of the neglect of OBC interests and the continuing desertions have rattled the BJP because they might lead to a split in its vote base and to an OBC, Muslim vote consolidation under the SP. The OBCs constitute about 50% of the state’s population. Out of the 107 candidates named by the party for the first and second phases of polling, 44 are from OBC castes and 19 from Scheduled Caste groups. The party has also decided to project Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s OBC identity in the campaign though that would amount to a diminishment of his image. It is caste calculations that run election strategies in the state now, but it is too early to say who will come up trumps.</p>
<p>The exodus from the BJP in Uttar Pradesh of a number of ministers, legislators and leaders, most of them belonging to the Other Backward Classes (OBC), has imparted a new element to the electoral scene in the state. Three cabinet ministers and nine MLAs have resigned from the party till now, accusing Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath and the party leadership of ignoring the concerns of Dalits, backwards, farmers, unemployed youth and traders. Those who left the party include some influential leaders of important OBC caste groups. Desertions from parties are common before elections, mainly because of denial of ticket. But the exodus from the BJP in UP may have reasons other than personal grievances. It goes without saying that a change in the caste combinations that make the electoral arithmetic in the state will have an impact on the outcome of the elections. </p>.<p>The BJP’s impressive victories in UP in the last few elections, including the 2019 Lok Sabha elections and the sweep of the 2017 Assembly elections, were the result of the consolidation of the votes of Hindu forward castes, non-Yadav OBCs and non-Jatav Dalit groups. But there are cracks in this combine now. The Jats, who had supported the BJP after the 2013 communal riots in Muzaffarnagar, are alienated now after the farmers’ agitation. Yogi Adityanath’s pro-Rajput image is said to have estranged a section of the Brahmin community. In five years of his rule, the focus is seen to have been more on ‘Kamandal’ than on ‘Mandal’. A dent in the OBC votes is bound to hurt the BJP in the elections. That the disaffected OBC leaders all made a beeline to the Samajwadi Party should further worry the BJP because the SP is the strongest challenger to the ruling party, given the emaciation of Mayawati’s BSP and that the Congress’ revival under Priyanka Gandhi is at best still work in progress. </p>.<p>The narrative of the neglect of OBC interests and the continuing desertions have rattled the BJP because they might lead to a split in its vote base and to an OBC, Muslim vote consolidation under the SP. The OBCs constitute about 50% of the state’s population. Out of the 107 candidates named by the party for the first and second phases of polling, 44 are from OBC castes and 19 from Scheduled Caste groups. The party has also decided to project Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s OBC identity in the campaign though that would amount to a diminishment of his image. It is caste calculations that run election strategies in the state now, but it is too early to say who will come up trumps.</p>
