<p>The Russian invasion of Ukraine is upending a tenuous global economic and political order. With a steady flow of foreign visitors landing in Delhi to compel India to change its stance, there is fierce speculation on how this distant fratricidal war will play out for India, a country unwittingly getting impacted by it. </p>.<p>This is not just about the economy, but India is confronted with the difficult choice of either aligning ever more closely with the US-led West or to strengthen the Eurasian triumvirate of Russia, China and India. No easy option here as it would irreversibly change India’s foreign policy and also cast its long shadow on national politics. </p>.<p>One of the major implications of Putin’s war has been the unheralded end to the murderous ‘global war on terror’ (GWOT) of the US. According to conservative estimates, about a million people lost their lives, and it cost $8 trillion. In Afghanistan (including the warzone in Pakistan), 241,000 people died in the 20-year war (Watson Institute study of 2021). Even that number is said to be a gross underestimate. Not only the loss of lives in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, etc., which has been considerable and has destroyed and devastated nations and communities, but this nasty and brutish war has also fanned Islamophobia in plural societies, which has re-shaped their politics. </p>.<p>There will be no admission from any country, but much of the killing and kidnapping of youth by the security forces in the sub-continent and outside, either to target al-Qaeda or other Islamist terrorists, emanated from technical intelligence from the US’ Central Intelligence agency (CIA) and its collaborators in the West and elsewhere. The end to this war that divided societies -- pitting Shias against Sunnis and Muslims against everyone else -- was visible when the US troops ignominiously exited from Afghanistan after 21 years. The colossal investment that the US and its allies made in controlling the narrative and demonising a religion as the enemy of civilised society could now be upturned suddenly by the ongoing Eurocentric war.</p>.<p>The ‘war on terror’ shaped politics in many countries, allowing terrorist incidents -- many times triggered by covert agencies -- to reshape narratives in different countries. In Spain, for instance, a bomb explosion on a train in 2004 changed people’s preference for who could be the country’s president then. But recently, the blast was blamed on some covert outfit. </p>.<p>Similar incidents that exacerbated Islamophobia have taken place everywhere. Most of the films in Hollywood changed their villains from a KGB agent to a clone of turban-wearing, Kalashnikov-wielding Osama bin Laden. In India, too, Wikileaks shows that Bollywood scriptwriters were trained by US agencies to craft scripts on Islamist terror. </p>.<p>We all know what happened thereafter. In a society like India, where Hindus and Muslims live cheek-by-jowl, the neighbour became the enemy -- someone to be mistrusted. The politics of the last two decades has been based on this deep suspicion and increasing hatred of Muslims, who are blamed for every conceivable absurdity as witnessed in the case of the 2020 Tablighi Jamaat convention being blamed for the spread of the Covid pandemic. Due to all this and more, the vote of Muslims has been rendered irrelevant in many parts of the country. There are many who pine for the days when aggravated hate between communities did not influence voting behaviour. </p>.<p>Now, Putin’s war is changing the paradigms of global diplomacy and global politics. The war has escalated to a point where Russia and the US keep dropping suggestions that the conflict could lapse into a nuclear or a chemical war. Such aggravation seems unlikely, but as Eastern Europe is not unfamiliar with wars on its cold and inhospitable terrain, such talk brings back the violent memories of the World Wars and the Balkan wars, which saw blood, gore and bereavement of near and dear ones on massive scales. </p>.<p>What Russia has done is a violation of the UN charter, but there is merit in the argument that Putin was driven to it by games Washington played. The US has imposed sanctions that have few parallels in global history – it has thrown Russian banks out of the SWIFT messaging system that allows international transactions to go through; most US and European companies have pulled out of Russia; European countries are moving to cut their reliance on Russia for oil and gas supplies; and the US and NATO continue to supply weapons to Ukraine to resist the Russian invasion. The West wants to defang Putin economically; Putin wants to de-dollarise the world economy. </p>.<p>In this crisis, when the US is straining all its sinews to undermine the viability and influence of Russia, what happens to all its intelligence and military investment that it has made in its vaunted fight against terror? Being the legatee of the Soviet Union that came to grief in Afghanistan in 1979 due to US support and sponsorship of the Mujahideen, Russia does not trust the US and its claims to be fighting Islamist terror. It seems to have got corroboration of US involvement in Syria’s troubles during its military operations in the West Asian country. Putin fears that the US might ignite similar trouble for Russia by using Islamist militants based in Afghanistan to cause trouble in the countries of Central Asia, which Russia sees as being under its sphere of influence.</p>.<p>If the US manages to use its influence in these parts, then it could stretch Moscow’s military resources. </p>.<p>The recent visit of the Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi to Afghanistan and to the Organisation of Islamic Countries was meant to build China’s sway over the Taliban, which has been ignored by the international community. His trip to Islamabad was also meant to fill in the vacuum that has left by the US as the guarantor of security in this region. The chatter in these groupings, pointing to Afghanistan, is that the US does not stand by its allies. </p>.<p>As these recalibrations in relationships occur, the question remains: What happens to the ‘global war on terror’? Where does it all leave India?</p>.<p><span class="italic">(The writer is the Editor of ‘Hardnews’ magazine)</span></p>
<p>The Russian invasion of Ukraine is upending a tenuous global economic and political order. With a steady flow of foreign visitors landing in Delhi to compel India to change its stance, there is fierce speculation on how this distant fratricidal war will play out for India, a country unwittingly getting impacted by it. </p>.<p>This is not just about the economy, but India is confronted with the difficult choice of either aligning ever more closely with the US-led West or to strengthen the Eurasian triumvirate of Russia, China and India. No easy option here as it would irreversibly change India’s foreign policy and also cast its long shadow on national politics. </p>.<p>One of the major implications of Putin’s war has been the unheralded end to the murderous ‘global war on terror’ (GWOT) of the US. According to conservative estimates, about a million people lost their lives, and it cost $8 trillion. In Afghanistan (including the warzone in Pakistan), 241,000 people died in the 20-year war (Watson Institute study of 2021). Even that number is said to be a gross underestimate. Not only the loss of lives in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, etc., which has been considerable and has destroyed and devastated nations and communities, but this nasty and brutish war has also fanned Islamophobia in plural societies, which has re-shaped their politics. </p>.<p>There will be no admission from any country, but much of the killing and kidnapping of youth by the security forces in the sub-continent and outside, either to target al-Qaeda or other Islamist terrorists, emanated from technical intelligence from the US’ Central Intelligence agency (CIA) and its collaborators in the West and elsewhere. The end to this war that divided societies -- pitting Shias against Sunnis and Muslims against everyone else -- was visible when the US troops ignominiously exited from Afghanistan after 21 years. The colossal investment that the US and its allies made in controlling the narrative and demonising a religion as the enemy of civilised society could now be upturned suddenly by the ongoing Eurocentric war.</p>.<p>The ‘war on terror’ shaped politics in many countries, allowing terrorist incidents -- many times triggered by covert agencies -- to reshape narratives in different countries. In Spain, for instance, a bomb explosion on a train in 2004 changed people’s preference for who could be the country’s president then. But recently, the blast was blamed on some covert outfit. </p>.<p>Similar incidents that exacerbated Islamophobia have taken place everywhere. Most of the films in Hollywood changed their villains from a KGB agent to a clone of turban-wearing, Kalashnikov-wielding Osama bin Laden. In India, too, Wikileaks shows that Bollywood scriptwriters were trained by US agencies to craft scripts on Islamist terror. </p>.<p>We all know what happened thereafter. In a society like India, where Hindus and Muslims live cheek-by-jowl, the neighbour became the enemy -- someone to be mistrusted. The politics of the last two decades has been based on this deep suspicion and increasing hatred of Muslims, who are blamed for every conceivable absurdity as witnessed in the case of the 2020 Tablighi Jamaat convention being blamed for the spread of the Covid pandemic. Due to all this and more, the vote of Muslims has been rendered irrelevant in many parts of the country. There are many who pine for the days when aggravated hate between communities did not influence voting behaviour. </p>.<p>Now, Putin’s war is changing the paradigms of global diplomacy and global politics. The war has escalated to a point where Russia and the US keep dropping suggestions that the conflict could lapse into a nuclear or a chemical war. Such aggravation seems unlikely, but as Eastern Europe is not unfamiliar with wars on its cold and inhospitable terrain, such talk brings back the violent memories of the World Wars and the Balkan wars, which saw blood, gore and bereavement of near and dear ones on massive scales. </p>.<p>What Russia has done is a violation of the UN charter, but there is merit in the argument that Putin was driven to it by games Washington played. The US has imposed sanctions that have few parallels in global history – it has thrown Russian banks out of the SWIFT messaging system that allows international transactions to go through; most US and European companies have pulled out of Russia; European countries are moving to cut their reliance on Russia for oil and gas supplies; and the US and NATO continue to supply weapons to Ukraine to resist the Russian invasion. The West wants to defang Putin economically; Putin wants to de-dollarise the world economy. </p>.<p>In this crisis, when the US is straining all its sinews to undermine the viability and influence of Russia, what happens to all its intelligence and military investment that it has made in its vaunted fight against terror? Being the legatee of the Soviet Union that came to grief in Afghanistan in 1979 due to US support and sponsorship of the Mujahideen, Russia does not trust the US and its claims to be fighting Islamist terror. It seems to have got corroboration of US involvement in Syria’s troubles during its military operations in the West Asian country. Putin fears that the US might ignite similar trouble for Russia by using Islamist militants based in Afghanistan to cause trouble in the countries of Central Asia, which Russia sees as being under its sphere of influence.</p>.<p>If the US manages to use its influence in these parts, then it could stretch Moscow’s military resources. </p>.<p>The recent visit of the Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi to Afghanistan and to the Organisation of Islamic Countries was meant to build China’s sway over the Taliban, which has been ignored by the international community. His trip to Islamabad was also meant to fill in the vacuum that has left by the US as the guarantor of security in this region. The chatter in these groupings, pointing to Afghanistan, is that the US does not stand by its allies. </p>.<p>As these recalibrations in relationships occur, the question remains: What happens to the ‘global war on terror’? Where does it all leave India?</p>.<p><span class="italic">(The writer is the Editor of ‘Hardnews’ magazine)</span></p>