In Pakistan, Imran Khan faces a challenge fiercer than the World Cup

Besides the ruling coalition of unlikely partners, the others hoping to take advantage of the opportunity of putting Khan away are the Pak Army and the US

Pakistan’s former Prime Minister Imran Khan often uses cricketing analogy in communicating. Referring to the police’s attempts to arrest him for failing to appear before a lower court, that then ordered his arrest, Khan averred, “They (his political opponents) want to get me out of the match so that they can win the elections.”

While in Punjab and Khyber Pukhtunkhwa, whose assemblies were dissolved by the ruling party there, Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaaf (PTI), provincial elections have been announced for summer, national elections are due in autumn, following the National Assembly completing its full term in August.

Not only are elections at stake, but — in case Khan wins — the question is whether he would be around to regain his chair, whence he was ousted in a vote of no-confidence in April. By going after Khan, the ruling coalition hopes that he would befall the fate of his predecessor, Nawaz Sharif, who was barred from holding public office following the Panama Papers’ case.

In the current crisis, Khan has held out at his Zaman Park residence in Lahore, with crowds of his supporters denying the police access. The face-off over two days resulted in some threescore injured on both sides.

Also read: Imran Khan tells party to continue struggle even if he is killed or jailed

This is seemingly a steep price for Khan’s alleged misdemeanour — sale at a profit of mementos bought from the toshakhana at discounted rates that had been received by Khan when Prime Minister. However, another non-bailable warrant stems from threatening a woman judge and the police at an earlier rally.

Besides the ruling coalition of unlikely partners — the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz), and Pakistan Peoples’ Party — others hoping to take advantage of the opportunity of putting Khan away are the Pakistan Army and, as per Khan, the United States (US).

Clearly, Khan has a more formidable array against him than he ever faced during his cricketing days.

Khan is very likely to clutch at straws as he navigates the challenge. He has alluded to a foreign conspiracy in the US looking for a scapegoat for its Afghanistan debacle. Since Khan consistently stood against its presence and activities in the region, he makes for a plausible fall guy.

Even if the US’ denial is accepted, that the theory helps Khan tap into the reservoir of anti-US sentiment has undoubted political utility.

As for the Pakistan Army, it has lost its uses for its ‘selected’ prime ministerial candidate. Having witnessed Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s impromptu stop-over late 2015 at Sharif’s Raiwind farmhouse, the Army thought Sharif as getting too close to India.

The Army preferred a new Prime Minister in place to help reach out to India on Kashmir as part of the eponymous ‘Bajwa doctrine’, named for its originator, Pakistan’s Army Chief. In the event, it was sorely disappointed. India changed the very complexion of the situation in Kashmir by its bold step on Article 370.

Khan complicated the Army’s relations with US too. The Pakistan Army, faced with being dismissed from frontline state status after the US’ Afghanistan debacle, wanted to sidle back into good books.

The US has been substituting Pakistan with India as part of its China-centric pivot to the East. Pakistan has also to keep it mollified since Islamabad has emulated New Delhi in taking an equidistant stance on the Ukraine war. It also wishes to take advantage of US’ disappointment in India on India’s autonomous position on the war.

Pakistan is currently in negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on yet another bailout package. Since the US holds the purse strings, keeping it placated is priority.

The 2022 bye-election results show that elections cannot be relied on to keep him from power. Other measures need thinking up, such as making a mountain of a molehill in the toshakhana case or persisting with the case on threatening the woman judge, though Khan has apologised since.

That the police has blinked for now means only that the current crisis has passed, but more such crises lie between now and the elections. That such crises can be defused shows Pakistani resilience, but if the Army steps in citing persisting political instability or if Khan is deprived of an election win later, the loser is democracy.

(Ali Ahmed is a freelance strategic analyst. Twitter: @aliahd66)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.