JOIN USIndia-China border tensions and the hosting of G20
The latest round of clashes between Indian and Chinese armies in Arunachal Pradesh has once again underlined the gravity of the China challenge faced by India. In fact, India and China have been locked in a border standoff in Ladakh since April 2020. India has mirrored and matched the Chinese deployments in Eastern Ladakh and has sought to prevent China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) from slicing the Indian territory.
While writing about the clashes in Arunachal Pradesh, many analysts have referred to the recent Indo-US military exercises near the China border in Uttarakhand. Moreover, according to the latest report of the US Department of Defense, China conveyed to the Americans that it should not interfere in its ties with India. However, while the standoff has not been resolved in Ladakh, the PLA's assertiveness in Arunachal Pradesh is certainly driven to send a political message as well. Besides, the timing of the clash was rather interesting.
Apart from the obvious Chinese interest in the strategically important Arunachal Pradesh, which it considers as Southern Tibet and claims the entirety of the state, three major developments need to be noted to understand the geopolitical context. First, the party congress of the Chinese Communist Party took place in October and Xi Jinping now reigns supreme. He has consolidated his grip on the party, military, and government and feels even more confident to project power abroad.
Second, since the G20 summit in Indonesia in November, the US and China have been trying to re-engage and manage their differences. As a result, China and Xi Jinping found themselves on a much stronger footing. Third, on December 1, India assumed the rotating presidency of the G20. India's government plans to celebrate the G20 summit and associated meetings as an event that will highlight the rise of India on the world stage. In this context, the three key political messages behind the border clash with India need to be understood.
By opening another sector in an already tense border situation, China has underscored that they can repeat such actions along the 3440-km-long border at will. They have the political willingness and the necessary military capability to undertake such assertive actions. Thus, India's diplomatic and security establishment will have to devote greater time and resources to manage the border and ties with China.
The crisis with China has likely forced a rethink of India's military modernisation plans. In the face of growing challenges on land, India will have to re-evaluate the goal of building up naval strength in the Indian Ocean to counter the growing forays of the PLA Navy.
Besides, the high cost of deploying troops, in large numbers since 2020, along the border has put greater financial strains on India when economic performance remains less than satisfactory and is likely to slow down next year.
Second, by deliberately keeping the border tense and refusing to negotiate dis-engagement from Demchok and Depsang, China has communicated that India will have to be careful while celebrating the G20 summit. China has sensed the imperative of India's ruling party and leadership to project the G20 as a grand success for foreign policy and domestic politics. However, the border tensions can be used as an effective bargaining chip to force New Delhi to make some compromises it would not otherwise do. The border tensions and assertive military posture could be deployed as a tool to spoil the party for New Delhi. The 'live' border and tense relationship will be used to apply pressure on New Delhi and perhaps limit its ambitions.
The third and final point is to flex muscles in the neighbourhood and project power. The message from China is that if India, its largest neighbour and a major Asian power, could be bullied in such a way, then other weaker neighbours should get the message. They should respect China's sensitivities, not support Taiwan, and behave accordingly. Besides, there could be a fourth, perhaps lesser important, factor – distracting attention away from the domestic protests. When clashes took place, China was in the grips of protests against the strict Covid-19 restrictions.
Taken together, besides the obvious military implications, by raking up border tensions in Arunachal Pradesh, China may perhaps have directed a strong political message for India. The task for India is to find a range of options to be able to stand up to China in a critical year.
(Sankalp Gurjar is an Assistant Professor at the Department of Geopolitics and International Relations, Manipal Academy of Higher Education)