India in the crosswinds

Nirupama Rao, the former Ambassador to China and the US, has called India’s equations with the US, China, and Russia “a three-body problem”. The three-body problem refers to the difficulty in calculating the motions of three celestial bodies moving on the gravitational forces they exert on each other. In the n-body problem, this prediction becomes harder because it involves thousands of celestial bodies interacting with each other gravitationally. India, at present, is in a similar situation, caught in a web of multiple powerful forces – the US, Russia, European nations, China, and Pakistan. Its neighbourhood remains unstable, with the latest wave of unrest hitting Nepal. Meanwhile, India grapples with its own social turmoil, marked by inequities and caste assertions. How should it address these intractable problems?

Most would trace the chaos of the present world order to Donald Trump. The US president has been a disruptor with the designs of a classic authoritarian who detests diversity and multiculturalism. The trade war he unleashed has pushed economies across the world to uncertainty and threatened domestic damage in the US. India, in particular, has been singled out for punitive tariffs and humiliation. While calling Narendra Modi his “good friend”, Trump has continued to engage with Pakistan. India has been targeted for being a “laundromat” for Russian oil and, in effect, funding Russia’s war against Ukraine. China, which initially faced the tariff heat, has since found favourable treatment by Trump.

It can be argued that the present dispensation in India has broken away from a tradition of caution in its handling of the China situation, as seen in its engagement in forums such as the Quad. India has shown intent in checking Chinese influence in the Indo-Pacific. Has the policy shift been effective? The jury is still out. Meanwhile, China’s continuous support to Russia, increasingly isolated over the war, marks an important geopolitical turn, setting the stage for new regional alliances, with India emerging as the unlikely third power.

Nehru’s policy of non-alignment was effective and steered India through tough times. These are different times that call for new strategies to navigate an evolving multipolar order. Even for countries that had a sense of what to expect from Trump, the chaos that ensued has been a jolt. Modi and S Jaishankar are not the only ones who have been caught unaware – some of the US’s traditional allies and trading partners in the Americas, Europe, and Asia have found themselves in Trump’s crosshairs. While countries such as Mexico and Canada have stood up in defiance, some in Europe have tried to placate Trump – the bottom line is that none have been able to read the president.

Trump, however, has found his match in the inscrutable Vladimir Putin, an authoritarian, ruthless leader who can keep even the US president guessing on his next move. There is a parallel here – both the leaders claim to be driven to make their countries great again.

So, where does this interplay of powers leave India, considering that Trump, unlike his predecessors, looks at India as China’s backyard, and not necessarily as a country with strong democratic credentials, a counterpoint to the belligerent China?

Even with all its internal strife and political friction, India is a rising economic power and a leader among robust democracies. We cannot lose our bearings and must use our stature to influence and mobilise international opinion against nations that use military force to extend territorial and political ambition. India’s strength is still in its moral core, which makes it an important voice in a fractious world. The words of Napoleon Bonaparte are relevant – “There are only two forces in the world, the sword and the spirit. In the long run, the sword will always be conquered by the spirit.”

Modi enjoys massive popularity – he can do without modelling himself on the lines of strongmen such as Trump, Putin, or Xi. As the Prime Minister, he must prioritise strengthening India’s democratic core, disown divisive forces, and take the lead in uniting disparate elements. Stronger institutions will gain us the moral high ground and the stature to show the way to the world. We can still resist and reform – in true Gandhian way – and make a difference.

The writer builds bridges, sometimes by tearing down walls. He is a soldier, farmer, and entrepreneur.