Tackling the climate emergency

Nearly 100 countries have announced a net-zero emission target by 2050 in the run up to the UN climate conference at Glasgow in November 2021. This target means greenhouse gas (GHG) emission by human activities is to be removed from the atmosphere by methods like forest expansion, cover crops, direct air capture and bio-energy with carbon capture and storage technology.

The United States, after Joe Biden took over the presidency, the European Union, South Korea, Japan and the United Kingdom are among the countries that have announced net-zero emission by 2050; China’s target is 2060.

Despite global pressure, experts are advising India not to announce a date for zero-emission, but take actions that can radically reduce emissions, rapidly green its economy, tackle air pollution at home and help achieve climate goals globally.

‘Emission gap report’ of the UNEP suggests that GHG emission is annually growing by 1.4% since 2010. However, the increase was 2.6% in 2019 because of forest fires in Brazil, Australia and California. This led to the highest GHG emission of 59.1 gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent. The report has also ranked countries, starting from the highest polluter, China, followed by the USA, the European Union, the UK and India; each of these countries contributed 14.1, 6.6, 4.3 and 3.7 gigatons, respectively.

Germanwatch with Climate Action Network have released Global Performance Report 2020, where the biggest emitter, China, ranks 33rd, the US at the bottom and India 10th. The G20 nations account for nearly 80% of GHG emissions and are not on track to meet Paris agreement, while Australia, the US and Canada are falling short of their targets.

Biden has called for a summit of 40 major emitting nations on April 22-23 on virtual mode to make them commit ambitious mitigation targets. His climate envoy John Kerry addressed the World Sustainable Development Summit in February and prioritised two goals - net-zero emission and shutting down all coal plants globally - for the Glasgow summit.

Nationally determined contribution (NDC) committed by different countries for the Paris Climate Accord is based on goodwill and there is no penalty for not complying. Trump felt that cutting emission would damage the economy and benefit China; he walked out of the Paris Agreement.

India has already moved significantly in de-carbonising its existing energy network, on the lines of the NDC set by us. Our target of generating renewable energy by 2030 is 450 GW. As much as 10% is already achieved and more than one-third of it is in the construction phase.

Biofuel production is also being ramped up and Prime Minister Narendra Modi has announced 20% blending of ethanol in petrol by 2024. Long distance gas pipeline projects like the one along Malabar coast up to Mangaluru, and pipelines from Ankleshwar, Haldia to cater to the energy requirements of northern states etc, will help reduce carbon footprints considerably.

Studies have revealed that India would reach peak emission by the middle of this decade, and thereafter the pace of transition would be at an unprecedented level the world has never seen before, if we are to follow the path of net zero by 2050.

Other developing countries like the US, China, EU, the UK, and Japan are taking 30 to 40 years for such a transition from peak to net zero. Emissions in advanced economies peaked at much higher levels of development with slower rate of growth and over a longer transition period.

During the transition, the cost of domestic electricity and railway passenger fare would increase; more importantly there would be job losses for half a million coal mine workers and impact the fiscal status of coal-dependent states.

Further, our per capita income in the post-peak period would be lower than developed economies and insufficient for supporting the transition. Nearly four years back, China projected its peak for 2035 and net zero in 2060.

Right time

By 2035, there would be technologies to bring down the renewable energy cost on par with fossil fuel-based power tariffs. That may be a proper time to commence the reduction of emissions and achieve net zero by 2060 like China.

Our renewable energy target of 450 gigatons by 2030 will have to be increased to 5,000 gigatons for net zero. We should thus aggressively increase the penetration level of renewable energy, introduce cost-effective, green hydrogen-based economy and biomass-based fuel production at scale.

We must get time till 2060 to achieve net zero, while developed economies must achieve it between 2040 and 2050. NDCs are the means to achieve the net-zero goal and countries must visit it every five years. Countries pledging net zero should announce their NDC for 2030 but not even 10 countries have enacted a domestic law for net-zero compliance. All others have only made policy statements and cannot be questioned for non-compliance.

Forests are the best carbon sink we are blessed with. Forest fire is a double-edged sword, as it releases carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, adds to GHG emissions and also decreases the potential of forests for carbon sequestration. Fires have ravaged the forests across the globe, and in most cases, it has not been quickly brought under control.

In our own country, forest fire in Nagaland and Manipur has destroyed 10 sq km of oak forests recently. High biodiversity areas like Simlipal Tiger Reserve in Odisha and Bandavgarh Tiger Reserve in Madhya Pradesh have burnt for days until rain brought some respite. Fire is continuing to ravage Uttarakhand forests for some days now. States must think out of the box in terms of drone surveillance and aerial spraying of water to overcome the problem.

(The writer is former Principal Chief Conservator of Forests in Karnataka)