Iran returns to talks as ‘non-declared’ nuclear power

What is happening to the 409 kgs of 60% enriched uranium is the million-dollar question.

Hardly a month into the Israel-Iran ceasefire initiated by United States President Donald Trump, new attempts to kickstart talks have begun. In consultation with Washington, the three European powers (E3) — France, the United Kingdom, and Germany — who are signatories of the 2015 Iran deal (JCPOA) are trying to reopen negotiations over the limits of Iran’s nuclear activities. But they are dealing with a transformed Iran — a veritable non-declared nuclear weapon State in secret possession of 409 kilogrammes of highly-enriched uranium enough to make 10 nuclear bombs, and answerable to none.

Tehran’s admission that the damage to its nuclear sites inflicted by the US air strikes is “serious and severe” messages that any resumption of uranium enrichment activity as such will take time. Equally, its readiness for talks with the E3 is logical, as the countdown has begun for the expiry of the JCPOA in October, and the stage is shifting to the UN Security Council by the end of August when the European powers take the call to invoke the snapback mechanism and restore UN sanctions.

Iran held consultations with the senior officials of Russia and China in Tehran last Thursday. Although Russia and China cannot exercise veto to block the snapback mechanism, they hold veto power vis-à-vis any E3 move to push the deadline for extending sanctions. Tehran expects Russia and China to prevent or mitigate the consequences of any restored sanctions.

Another round of discussion with the E3 at the official level was held in Istanbul on Friday. Little emerged from the meeting, but the Iranian side said the talks were “frank and detailed,” addressing issues including last month’s war and the possible restoration of sanctions. According to Kazem Gharibabadi, Iran’s deputy foreign minister, “Both sides came to the meeting with specific ideas, the various aspects of which were examined. It was agreed that consultations on this matter will continue.” 

The E3 realise that there is hardly any time left to reach an agreement by the end of August, and would rather kick the can down the road by extending the timeline for actually restoring the sanctions. Against this backdrop, Manouchehr Mottaki, a former foreign minister and an influential member of the Majlis representing Tehran, has warned in an interview on Sunday that any move by the E3 to trigger the snapback mechanism of the JCPOA to pressure Tehran will instantaneously prompt the parliament to approve a motion to pull Iran out of the NPT.

The main sticking point continues to be the Trump administration’s insistence at Israeli behest that Iran give up enrichment of uranium altogether and Iran’s refusal to do so insisting it would instead agree to strict limits on that enrichment of the kind laid out in the 2015 deal.

Interestingly, some of the Europeans are reportedly less adamant so long as limits on enrichment are severe and monitored more closely than they are now. Considering that E3 is in constant consultations with Washington, the Trump administration too may have an open mind. Herein, possibly, lies the ‘breakthrough’ that Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, in a recent interview with Fox News, claimed to have reached in his talks with US special envoy Steve Witkoff which the sudden Israeli attack on June 13 disrupted.

Meanwhile, two related issues arise — first, the whereabouts of 408 kg of highly-enriched uranium [at 60 per cent] that Iran reportedly removed from its nuclear sites prior to the US bombing on July 22, and, second, Iran’s revised parameters for any future IAEA inspection.

Iran has agreed to allow a technical team from the IAEA to visit Tehran in the coming weeks “to discuss a new modality" on future interaction but “not to go to the [nuclear] sites.” Technical level discussions on the nitty gritty of the IAEA safeguards are time-consuming. Meanwhile, what is happening to the 409 kg of 60 per cent enriched uranium is the million dollar question. 

In a recent podcast, the professor emeritus of science, technology, and international security at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and a former Pentagon adviser, Theodore Postol, suggested that Iran must now be viewed in geopolitical terms as a “non-declared nuclear weapon state”, having shown in an experiment in early 2023 already that it could enrich uranium at 83.7 per cent, enough to make nuclear weapons. 

Postol points out that Iran now needs almost no enrichment effort to go to 90 per cent or above to produce nuclear bombs. There is no more monitoring of its production of centrifuges for the next several months at least, and each cascade can produce an estimated one bomb every 4-5 weeks. This can be done in total secrecy as no gigantic facility like Natanz is needed for it. A cascade can be installed in a room of 60 square meters with access to minimal electricity to operate the cascade — as little as 20 watts. 

Therefore, according to Postol, all that is needed is a small operation, if push comes to shove. In comparable circumstances, he recalled, Pakistan needed just 15 days after India tested.

Truly, this is a surreal situation. Look at the interplay of light and shade where images can be truths and semi-truths or quasi-truths bordering on fakes. 

Trump believes Iran’s nuclear sites have been “obliterated” (quasi-truth) while Iran says US bombing inflicted “serious and severe” damage to its nuclear site (semi-truth). 

The E3 plans to trigger the JCPOA’s snapback mechanism because Iran has violated the 2015 deal (quasi-truth) while Iran warns that if UN sanctions are restored in any such contrived manner, it will quit NPT (truth). 

The E3 is exploring ways and means of deferring restoration of sanctions (truth) but Iran disfavours it (semi-truth) while Russia and China will need to co-operate with the E3 and the US in the UNSC, for which the international climate is hardly conducive (truth). 

Iran underscores removal of Western sanctions as an absolute prerequisite (truth) while the E3 and the US remain ambivalent (truth). 

Iran rules out weaponisation (half-truth) while it is already a de facto non-declared nuclear power (truth) in possession of 409 kgs of highly-enriched uranium from which an estimated 10 nuclear bombs can be made in a small operation.

Enter Russian President Vladimir Putin. On Monday, Putin had a telephone conversation with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Interestingly, Putin “expressed its willingness to facilitate in every possible way the search for negotiated solutions to the Iran nuclear issue.” 

This is happening even after Trump brushed aside any scope for Russian mediation. By the way, Postol also advised Israel that it is “absolutely reckless” on its part not to believe that Iran is already a de facto nuclear weapon state. He specifically warned that any eruption of conflict may put Tel Aviv and Haifa in danger of annihilation.

(M K Bhadrakumar is a former diplomat)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.