Bangladesh: From breaking point back to ballots

Bangladesh, after a bloody struggle with an undemocratic and repressive government, followed by another difficult experience of 18 months of poor governance and deteriorating law and order, is finally heading into the 13th parliamentary elections on February 12. Bangladeshis will also be responding to five key questions of the national referendum being held simultaneously. The referendum holds the key to constitutional reforms, demanded by the youth movement. Since August 2024, the nation has seen various faultlines emerge, with identity questions being revisited and competing nationalism finding loud expressions. Hopefully, an elected government will usher in much-needed political and economic stability in Bangladesh.

This election, however, will witness a hard and bitter fight, as the pre-poll violence indicates. Over 127 million voters will have to choose from around 2000 candidates contesting for the 300 parliamentary seats. But, in reality, the absence of the Awami League from the electoral space has led to distinct reconfigurations, and the election has essentially become a contest between the two former partners – Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and Jamaat-I-Islami (JI).

Tarique Rahman, the heir to the BNP’s high seat, returned to a rousing welcome in Dhaka late last month. He laid out his ‘plan’ for Bangladesh and called for national unity to enable fulfilment of the people’s aspirations, while wishing to maintain equidistance from Delhi and Islamabad – a significant reassurance given the new political milieu in Bangladesh. The BNP’s electoral slogan, ‘Sobar Aage Bangladesh’ (Bangladesh before Anything else), effectively captures the public mood, but for a political party that has remained politically marginalised for over 17 years, the comeback poses many challenges.

Attempting to make a strong claim for the vacant centrist position, the BNP, leading a coalition of 10 political parties, thus decided to ditch the JI.

The JI, a religious political party that made a strong comeback after the takeover by the interim administration, hopes to stake its claim in the mainstream electoral space like never before. They realise this is their only scope to garner more votes, as the next round of national elections will unlikely give them a similar opportunity, which is also why they strongly argued against allowing the Awami League to contest this election, unlike the BNP’s position.

Having tasted sound victory in several university union elections held a few months ago, the JI now sees a prospect to consolidate its electoral presence at the national level. The Jamaat, a well-funded, strongly organised party, is heading a separate 11-party alliance, including the National Citizen Party (NCP), the new party, which certainly adds to the youth optics but is not likely to win many of the 32 seats it is contesting. The JI’s slogan, ‘Cholo Eksathe Gori Bangladesh’ (Let’s Build Bangladesh Together), has focused on a comparatively corruption-free image, but the lack of any women candidates and its very rigid positions related to women, which some of their alliance members have expressed, pose obvious limitations.

Although some JI leaders have tried to tap into women voters through plans to establish daycare centres and breastfeeding corners in offices, there is a perception problem surrounding the JI among the largely middle-of-the-ground urban Bangladeshis. Indeed, nearly two-thirds of the seats are spread over urban locations. Although media polls have pointed to JI improving its voter strength, it still lacks mass appeal. Jamaat will reap benefits from past association with the BNP, especially in the seats which the BNP had allowed them to contest in the past, and they continue to hold an advantage over these coveted seats. Shrewdly, JI has attempted to tap into the heightened concerns over minority violence and has fielded two Hindu candidates. But whether the minorities will take the bait remains a question. Coercion, of course, remains an available tool to many of the seasoned politicians, especially when it comes to minorities.

The past few months have also not covered the BNP in much glory, as reports of local extortions and bribes have come to light periodically. There is also disquiet in the party surrounding new leaders being favoured over long-time-serving key personalities. The BNP’s electoral confidence is likely to be dented, with the votes that are likely to be split over the number of expelled BNP candidates who are contesting individually from 72 constituencies, and by all accounts, many of them seem to be strong in the reckoning. Several media reports have pointed to several seats being pitched for a face-off between the BNP and the former BNP candidates. It has been suggested that the votes will be cast for individual candidates rather than party symbols this time.

The youth and first-time voters constitute nearly 35% of the electorate. Presently, the new generation of voters has been included in the electoral process. Bangladeshi youths are very politically active but given the immediate history of the July-August 2024 movement and their aspiration for accountability and good governance, their electoral preferences are rather unknown.

The Jatiya Party has always, through its limited numbers, lent itself to the winning alliance. This time, a new alliance called the National Democratic Front (NDF) has been formed, which includes two factions of the Jatiya Party, with G M Qader leading a faction that remained outside this equation, making for more electoral uncertainty.

The interim government has, for the first time, introduced postal ballots for the four lakh overseas Bangladeshis. This time round, the individual voter will be casting their vote by ballot, not by voting machine.

Clearly, this election will be rather transformational, not only domestically but also in terms of its impact on many of the international ties and partnerships that have emerged in recent times.

For India, the choice in present-day Bangladesh is rather tricky. Indian memories of the last BNP rule, which caused heightened security concerns, remain, while the JI is known for its open anti-India position. But in recent months, many of the Bangladeshi politicians have voiced the need to engage with India, but the presence of elements who have been unhappy with the policies of the Government of India will need to be navigated adroitly by the elected government.

The 15 years of Awami rule and the past 18 months have led to many anti-India sentiments. Undeniably, India is not happy with these ‘non-inclusive’ elections that Bangladesh is holding. The banning of political activities of the AL by the Interim administration did not endear Dhaka to Delhi, and the past month saw a further dip in bilateral ties. While the Indian Foreign Minister’s visit to attend Khaleda Zia’s funeral was appreciated, he was the only leader who did not meet Yunus. The controversy over cricket that followed soon further worsened the bilateral ties, but more telling was India’s decision to allow former Awami League leaders to interact with journalists. One of the media events also had the former prime minister, Sheikh Hasina, online. The timing was pathetic and naturally dismayed a large section of Bangladeshis.

Hopefully, Delhi and Dhaka will find ways to reset their ties after the elections in Bangladesh. Definitely, the 2026 JS elections will be consequential for all.

(The writer is a professor at the Jindal School of International Affairs, O P Jindal Global University, Haryana)