Hamas attack raises questions over an Israeli intelligence failure

The devastating surprise attack by Hamas on Saturday represented an equally stunning intelligence failure by Israel that involved undetected warnings, overwhelmed missile defenses and a slow response by apparently unprepared military forces, former and current US officials said.

American officials said Hamas had achieved a complete tactical surprise, reflected in a death toll of at least 700 Israelis. The Palestinian militant group sent hundreds of fighters through breached walls, breaking through with bulldozers and then killing civilians and soldiers in shooting sprees that went on for hours.

None of Israel’s intelligence services had specific warning that Hamas was preparing a sophisticated attack that required coordinated land, air and sea strikes, according to an Israeli defense official and American official. While the attack also surprised many Western intelligence agencies, they do not track Hamas’ activities as closely as Israel or Egypt do.

The success astounded American officials with experience in the region. Over the years, Israel has set up a network of electronic intercepts, sensors and human informants throughout Gaza, which is about half the area of New York’s five boroughs. Israel and its neighbours have invested heavily in trying to track and block Hamas’ networks, often intercepting shipments of missile components.

That past success has made all the more urgent a series of questions about Israel’s failures Saturday.

Why was Israel’s Iron Dome missile defense system, now a dozen years old, apparently overwhelmed by the barrage of inexpensive but deadly missiles at the opening of the attack? How did Hamas manage to build such a big arsenal of rockets and missiles without Israeli intelligence detecting the growing stockpile?

Was Israel too focused on threats from Hezbollah and the West Bank, rather than focusing military and intelligence resources on Gaza? And why were so many Israeli forces on leave or distant from the southern border, allowing Hamas to overrun Israeli military bases near Gaza?

Neither American nor Israeli officials would address the questions Sunday. But clearly the answers could affect the reputation of Israel's military and intelligence agencies, and the political future of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

“Hamas has challenged the very fundamental concept of Israeli deterrence,” said Kenneth McKenzie, a retired Marine Corps general and former top US commander in the Middle East. “It can only be reestablished with the application of overwhelming, shocking violence. And it is only getting started.”