Pakistan water authority asks farmers to brace for up to 35% water shortage

Islamabad: Pakistan’s leading water regulator has warned that up to 35 per cent less water would be available for crops this season due to water shortage in the country’s two main reservoirs.

The warning comes as the staple food crop of wheat approaches its prime when it needs more water to bring more produce.  The Indus River System Authority (Irsa) on Friday warned Punjab and Sindh — the two major bread baskets — to brace for up to 35 per cent water shortages in the last leg of the current crop season, with the Tarbela and Mangla dams rapidly approaching their dead levels.

According to the Dawn newspaper, in a letter to irrigation secretaries, Isra told the four provinces that both reservoirs were close to their dead levels.

“There is the likelihood that provinces of Punjab and Sindh may face a shortfall of 30-35pc while operating the reservoirs on run-of-the-river mode at or around dead levels,” wrote Irsa’s Director of Regulation Khalid Idrees Rana.

According to Irsa’s latest data, Tarbela Dam had only 73,000 acre-feet of water storage, with its level recorded at 1,409 feet, just nine feet above its dead level of 1,400 feet.

The dam, which has a maximum storage level of 1,550 feet, was receiving 17,000 cusecs of inflow against an outflow of 20,000 cusecs on Friday.

Mangla Dam had a live storage of 235,000 acre-feet, with its level at 1,088 feet, just 28 feet above its dead level of 1,060 feet. The dam, whose maximum conservation level is 1,242 feet, was receiving 16,400 cusecs while releasing 18,000 cusecs on Friday.

This suggests that both reservoirs are depleting fast.

Irsa told the provinces that it was evident from daily discharge data that the Tarbela and Mangla reservoirs “may touch their dead levels in the next few days”, as Irsa had already anticipated at the start of the Rabi season on Oct 2, 2024, when it estimated the storage reaching dead level in first 10 days of March 2025.

Depletion of reservoirs to dead level is a usual phenomenon and could happen twice a year. However, the wheat crop, already faced with lower-than-targeted sowing due to changing government policies, is currently at a critical stage of last watering and should be readying for harvest by the end of this month.

Irsa, however, noted that recent rains had a positive impact on standing crops. “Fortunately, the recent rain spell contributed positively to the Indus Basin Irrigation System (IBIS) and currently, supplies close to the indents are being released for the provinces, keeping in view the water shortages accounted for in the Water Accounts Report,” it said.

According to Pakistan’s Bureau of Statistics, agriculture constitutes the largest sector of the economy, contributing about 24 per cent to the GDP and accounts for half of the employed labour force.

It is also the largest source of foreign exchange earnings, and apart from feeding the whole rural and urban population, the majority of the population, directly or indirectly is dependent on it.