Venezuela turmoil unlikely to impact global crude prices or India: Crisil Ratings

New Delhi: Crisil Ratings on Tuesday said that recent developments in Venezuela are not likely to have any material near-term impact on crude oil prices, as the Latin American nation had a relatively small share of global supply.

A US military operation in early January resulted in the capture of President Nicolas Maduro on drug-related charges, triggering uncertainty in the country, which holds some of the world's largest proven crude reserves.

Crisil Ratings, in a note, said even if the situation escalates and disrupts crude oil production in Venezuela, the impact on global oil prices would likely be limited, as the country accounts for only about 1.5 per cent of global crude supply.

Brent crude prices have remained largely stable in recent days, hovering just above USD 60 a barrel.

For India, the developments in Venezuela are unlikely to have any material impact on its global trade or the credit quality of Indian companies.

India's direct trade exposure to Venezuela is minimal, it said.

Imports from the South American nation account for less than 0.25 per cent of India's total imports, with crude oil making up over 90 per cent of the roughly Rs 14,000 crore imports in fiscal 2025. Venezuela supplies about 1 per cent of India's crude oil requirement.

While India imports nearly 85 per cent of its crude oil needs and remains sensitive to global price movements, Crisil does not expect the Venezuela situation to have any near-term impact on oil prices. Over the medium to long term, however, increased investment in Venezuela’s large untapped oil reserves could boost global supply and potentially soften crude prices, which would be positive for Indian companies.

"While we do not anticipate any material near-term impact of the Venezuela situation on crude oil prices, investments for increasing crude oil production in Venezuela, which has vast untapped reserves, could boost oil supply globally and lead to softening of crude oil prices over the medium to long term, which could be a positive for India Inc," it said.

India's exports to Venezuela were below Rs 2,000 crore in fiscal 2025, accounting for less than 0.1 per cent of total exports. These were diversified across sectors, such as pharmaceuticals, ceramics, textiles and two-wheelers. Pharmaceutical exports stood at about Rs 900 crore, less than 0.5 per cent of India's total pharma exports, while other sectors recorded modest shipments of Rs 80-120 crore each.

Crisil Ratings said it does not expect any material impact on the credit profiles of Indian companies with exposure to Venezuelan customers, given the limited scale of trade, but added that it will continue to monitor developments closely.