23 years of Kargil: Eerie similarities with the eastern Ladakh standoff

The Kargil victory flame seems to be an effort to dazzle those worried about the evolving dangerous situation in eastern Ladakh

The two situations are not comparable, but some of the disturbing signs of the Kargil conflict of 1999 are evident in eastern Ladakh, where a more than 27-month-long military standoff with China is making things difficult for India.

The Kargil conflict crosses one's mind around this time of the year, particularly this year as the 'Kargil victory flame' is travelling across the Union Territory (UT) of Jammu and Kashmir in the run-up to the Kargil victory celebrations on July 26 in Ladakh, now a separate UT.

Both Kargil and eastern Ladakh fall in the UT of Ladakh. The region has three different kinds of borders. These are - the Line of Control with Pakistan-occupied Gilgit-Baltistan, the Actual Ground Position Line at the Siachen glacier, the highest battleground in the world as its altitude ranges from 18,000 to 21,000 feet above sea level, and the Line of Actual Control with China.

While triumphant and a tragic reminder of the brave soldiers martyred in the conflict, the journey of the Kargil victory flame at the current juncture is also ironic.

It celebrates the victory the Indian Army achieved by uprooting Pakistani soldiers from the trans-Himalayan heights against all odds, but the cost paid for hoisting the tricolour atop Tiger Hill, the highest feature in the trans-Himalayas at the elevation of 5062 meters and the potent symbol of near-absolute victory, was heavy – more than 500 soldiers and officers laid down their lives.

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The year 2022, 23 years after the Kargil War, is also witnessing a similar situation in eastern Ladakh, where Chinese troops forced India to mobilise its troops and war machinery to the matching level in the cold desert, inflicting a considerable cost to the Indian military. The scenario, in many ways, is a déjà vu of what happened in the Kargil heights during the winters of 1998-1999 when the Pakistan Army intruded into the Indian side of the LoC. India incurred the cost of the war because it overlooked the need to maintain surveillance during the winters.

Before the Chinese troops appeared too close to the border in eastern Ladakh with the straightforward design to alter the status quo of the LAC, an oversimplified narrative was propagated to convince the nation that everything was well. But before April 2020, the Indian side ignored the warning signs as the Chinese troops had started appearing on the LAC and at times even crossed it, which the Indian side dismissed as "transgressions", ruling out that the Chinese had intruded into the Indian territory.

A heavy dose of overconfidence after the Doklam episode had led to complacency, a fatal one, which manifested in the Galwan Valley on June 15/16. 2020. Twenty Indian soldiers and officers were killed in the brutal clashes in which nail-studded wooden clubs, iron rods and cemented poles were used. That had happened for the first time in 45 years at the LAC, making the dangerous Chinese designs evident. The solace that no other Galwan-like incident has occurred since has not eroded the dangers inbuilt in the tense standoff situation.

The current scenario is a repeat of the Kargil situation. Kargil is now an allegory for ignoring the warning signals and the resultant costs. Indeed, the number of casualties at Galwan was nowhere near that of the Kargil conflict of 1999, but it wasn't, unlike Kargil, more than a seven-month-long episode. Kargil has since become an ongoing standoff between the Indian and Pakistani troops, for India doesn't want to be retaken by surprise.

More than 500 casualties in 1999 aside, the current standoff is in a much larger area - across 646 km, and the deployment of troops is against a bigger adversary. The only option is dialogue and diplomacy to resolve the issue. Notably, efforts at dialogue and diplomacy have been initiated all by New Delhi, with Beijing paying lip service, doing little in terms of disengagement and de-escalation of the situation in return.

The Kargil victory flame focuses more on the advantages India secured against Pakistan 23 years ago, but it also seems to be an effort to dazzle those worried about the evolving dangerous situation in eastern Ladakh. Victories of the past are part of history, the commemoration of which inspires generations, but can such celebrations balance emerging dangers and threats. As the troops continue to stay put in the Kargil heights, the 1999 conflict has not found its closure as yet. When will the eastern Ladakh standoff see its end, and how and why is uncertain. The victory flame of Kargil cannot breach the ongoing dark phase. That's where the nation stands today – the celebrations have their flip side as well – eastern Ladakh bears testimony to that.

(Arun Joshi, a senior journalist and author, based in Jammu and Kashmir, writes about South Asia's political and geo-strategic affairs)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.