JOIN USRBI MPC keeps repo rate unchanged at 4%, lowers FY23 growth forecast to 7.2%
In a bid to propel Covid-19-hit economic recovery, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Friday left the benchmark lending and borrowing rates unchanged but owing to the evolving geopolitical condition and volatile crude oil prices, it lowered the economic growth forecast for current financial year (2022-23) to 7.2 per cent from the earlier 7.8 per cent and raised inflation estimates to 5.7 per cent from its February forecast of 4.5 per cent.
The RBI also raised its assumption of crude oil price to $100 per barrel for 2022-23 from the current $75 per barrel.
The repo rate at which the central bank lends to the bankers was kept unchanged at 4 per cent for the 11th time in a row since March 2020. With RBI maintaining a status quo, banks will not increase interest rates on home, auto and other personal loans in immediate future.
Sharp pump prices of transport oil may push inflation; edible oil prices to remain at an elevated level in the near future. Food and other commodity prices across the globe have also hardened, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said while announcing monetary policy decision.
Consumer price inflation has remained above the RBI's upper tolerance level of 6 per cent for the past two months. "The economy is grappling with a sharp rise in inflation...," he said, adding any projection of growth and inflation is fraught with risk and is contingent upon future oil and commodity price developments, given the volatility in oil prices since February when the Russia-Ukraine war escalated.
"Despite inflation edging higher in the aftermath of the Russia-Ukraine war and surging oil prices, the RBI has again decided to keep the repo rates unchanged at 4 per cent. This is obviously positive for home loan borrowers," said Arun Chitnis of ANAROCK Group. He said that developers' input costs have been inflating steeply and a hike in property prices is now more or less inevitable.
The Governor assured that the RBI will take steps to contain the impact of global spillovers. Das said the RBI is not hostage to any rule book, will use all available tools to defend the Indian economy.
"...The downward revision of GDP growth rate and upward revision of retail inflation were expected. The RBI is now anticipating much faster rise in inflation than earlier. The monetary policy stance, however, remains accommodative by the normal standard. The RBI is also trying to flatten the yield curve by pushing the short-term rates higher and taking measures to ensure that the yield on long-dated securities do not rise much," said Sujan Hajra, Chief Economist and Executive Director, Anand Rathi Shares & Stock Brokers.
In another major decision, it said it will soon allow bank customers to make cardless cash withdrawals from ATMs of any bank through the help of the Unified Payment Interface (UPI). The move will help contain frauds like skimming, card cloning, and device tampering.
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