No solution in sight

North Korea under the leadership of Kim Jong-un rattled the world yet again by firing another intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) on November 29 early morning that landed close to Japan, stoking tensions in Tokyo over security concerns. American experts and scientists were quick to assess that theoretically, Washington could be within range of Kim's latest ICBM. North Korea, too, claimed that all of America was within its range.

The continuing defiance of international sanctions by Pyongyang poses a serious challenge to America. President Donald Trump had vowed not to allow North Korea to develop nuclear-tipped missiles that can hit mainland US.

As per Pentagon's assessment, the ICBM flew about 1,000 km before splashing down inside Japan's maritime Economic Exclusion Zone. However, according to South Korean military, the missile reached an apogee of around 4,500 km, more than 10 times the height of the international space station, and flew a downrange of 960 km before landing. Ending a 75-day lull in Pyongyang's provocative actions, the launch of the missile, which landed west of the northern end of Japan's largest island of Honshu, was in response to Trump's re-listing North Korea as a state sponsor of terrorism a week earlier. Pyongyang saw it as American provocation.

The latest launch underscored the increasing sophistication of North Korea's weapons programme. While the previous ICBM launches of July 4 and July 28 flew for 39 and 47 minutes respectively, the latest one flew for 53 minutes on a steep trajectory, suggesting an actual range of 13,000 km, bringing the entire US within range. The missile launched earlier on July 4, the first ICBM, Hwasong-14, reached an altitude of 2,802 km and a range of 933 km during a flight of 39 minutes.

The second test of the Hwasong-14 on July 28 showed improved performance, with the missile flying for 47 minutes to an altitude of 3,724 km and a range of 998 km, showing a range of more than 10,000 km, potentially putting the US West Coast within range. After the latest launch of 29 November, Kim Jong-un declared that with the Hwasong-15 North Korea has "finally realised the great historic cause of completing the state nuclear force".

It remains unclear, however, if the missile could carry a large nuclear warhead far enough to strike the US, since it remains unknown what payload the missile was carrying. It also remains unclear if Pyongyang has perfected the re-entry technology required to bring a warhead back through the Earth's atmosphere during its descent, but surely it is on the threshold of developing a working nuclear strike capability against US cities.

There is a view that argues that in an effort to increase the vehicle's range, North Korea might have fitted it with a mock payload that weighed little or next to nothing. It further argues that though the distance it travelled was impressive, it does not necessarily translate into a working ICBM that could deliver a nuclear warhead.

Pyongyang has upped the tensions after it conducted the sixth and most powerful nuclear explosive test in September and fired an intermediate-range missile over Japan's northern island of Hokkaido. In the event of war breaking out, the immediate casualty will be South Korea, where an estimated 65,000 civilians would perish in Seoul alone on the first day of a conventional North Korean attack.

Though North Korea would come under heavy reprisal from the US and its allies, Seoul, home to over 10 million people and about 50 km from the border and thus within range of Pyongyang's artillery, would face incalculable devastation. Japan, the other US ally in the region, would not escape from heavy damage to its people and property either.

This time, the launch time and location were different. Unlike many other tests that have historically occurred in the early mornings, the one on November 29 occurred in the middle of the night, at around 2.28 am. This was an indication of North Korea's intention to test weapons from anywhere and at any time, making it more difficult for other countries to predict and possibly intercept a launch.

Predictable reactions

Reactions were on expected lines. Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe called the test an "intolerable violent act." South Korean President Moon Jae-In condemned Pyongyang's "reckless" behaviour. South Korean military responded by staging a precision-strike missile exercise as it did with previous tests. Earlier Trump had threatened to rain "fire and fury" on North Korea.

The long hiatus of 75 days had raised the spectre of North Korea's readiness for a negotiated solution to the nuclear standoff. That optimism proved to be misplaced. While Trump wants tighter sanctions, and massive retaliation in the event of an attack, his Secretary of State Rex Tillerson sees diplomatic options as "viable and open". This time, Trump who had in the past insulted Kim and threatened "fire and fury" that would "totally destroy" that country, avoided threats of military retaliation. But he does keep military strike on the table as an option.

While the UN Security Council agreed to convene an emergency session to discuss the latest provocation, there was no immediate reaction from China, North Korea's sole ally and economic lifeline. China has come under repeated US pressure to do more to rein in Pyongyang's nuclear ambitions.

China's "suspension-for-suspension" formula - freezing of joint US-South Korea military drills and North Korea halting its weapons programmes - is rejected by the US. Instead, after re-listing North Korea as a state sponsor of terrorism, Trump unveiled new sanctions targeting North Korean shipping as well as a number of Chinese companies doing business with the pariah state. There seems to be no solution on the horizon on the North Korean imbroglio.

(The writer is currently ICCR India Chair Visiting Professor at Reitaku University, Japan)