JOIN USAkali Dal losing ground in Punjab
The recurrent electoral reversal for the Congress has raised question mark over the future of the party. Confined now to six states only and fearful of losing even Karnataka, the pa-rty leadership must be looking towards the 2017 Assembly elections in Punjab in anticipation for a reversal in the party’s fortune as besides Uttarakhand, it is the only state where the party seems to have a real chance of electoral success in near future.
However, the stakes are also high for the other two main contenders in the fray. Viewed as being the catalyst behind the major shifts that have taken place in the politics of Punjab after partition, the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) finds itself in a most difficult situation.
Arguably, losing election after remaining in power for an unprecedented two terms may not be considered a big deal but the scale of loss would be. Once a formidable cadre-based and ideologically driven ‘panthic’ party having its organisational presence across the state is now reduced to the status of a catch-all ‘family party’.
The SAD’s unexpected 2012 electoral success was more due to CM’s son and Deputy CM Su-khbir Singh Badal’s ‘electoral management’, abetted by the failings of the factionalised Congress and reckless politics of freebies that brought additional vote of the poor and sizable Dalits.
It is a very different situation now not only because the seductive pre-poll grand populist promises/ announcements have remained woefully unfulfilled and the economy has taken further hit but also, for the first time since reorganisation of the state, the party seems to have lost a major chunk of its traditional rural social support base, especially the dominant Jat Sikh peasantry, the bedrock of the party.
However, the biggest concern that threatens the party is the growing popular perception, fuelled by hyper-active social media, that Akalis are to be blamed for all that has gone horribly wrong with the state. Recently, Punjab has been witness to the institutionalisation of corrupt practices bordering on criminality. All kinds of mafias, ranging from drugs to sand, transport, cable and liquor seem to be thriving with impunity.
Among these, the widely reported availability of drugs across the state and menacingly growing drug addiction among the youth and the inability of the ruling dispensation of not doing enough to check it, worse the alleged complicity of some of the Akali leaders has caused irreparable damage to the image of the party that stands for ‘Punjab, Punjabi and Punjabiat’.
In the last one year, there has been a marked increase in farmers’ suicides followed by large scale cotton farmers’ protests for adequate compensation from the government and irregularity in the purchase and distribution of spurious pesticide.
As though this was not enough, Punjab then had to face mass enrage due to the repeated incidents of desecration of the revered Guru Granth Sahib, which again was perceived to be a diversionary tactics. The rumblings related to the matters concerning the Shiromani Gurdwara Parbandhak Committee and the Akal Takht show the Sikh masses anger against the system at undermining of the autonomy of the two institutions.
Electoral gimmick
The party’s recent attempts to project itself as saviour of Punjab by passing a resolution in the Assembly to denotify the acquisition of the land acquired for the construction of the Sutlej Yamuna Link (SYL) canal is being viewed as an electoral gimmick and so is its newfound zeal to build religious memorials or to resurrect the emotive issues.
With SAD on the back foot and its ally the BJP deciding to maintain the status quo, given the party’s limited urban/caste Hindu support base and fear of actually helping the Congress/ AAP cause, will it be then advantage Congress, led by Capt Amrinder Singh, the leader with a state-wide support base. However, since his resurrection, he has remained engaged in fighting off his rivals within the party than taking on the Opposition.
The party has lost two consecutive elections in the past. Amrinder, who led the Congress regime (2002-2007), is not remembered for honest and efficient governance. And like in other states, the Congress simply does not have the second string of youthful leaders nor has it effective presence in the influential social media.
What about the AAP then? Besides Delhi, Punjab is the only state that presents a winnable electoral opportunity for the party having national ambition. Since then, the party has lost two by-elections in Punjab badly, its two MPs have turned rebels and under the ‘Punjab Plan’, it carried out a purge of all the dissidents. The party has, of course, held well-attended rallies, inducted fresh volunteers, run door-to-door campaign but is yet to articulate its action plan to revive Punjab or announce its state leader.
Like in its 2014 successful bid, AAP would put up candidates with clean/apolitical image and project its Delhi government’s achievements” especially in terms of providing freebies. By targeting especially the peasantry and Dalits for electoral support, AAP has sough to erode the support base of both SAD and the Congress.
So, come April 2017, an interesting election is on card, as a three-year old party would take on the two ‘century-old parties’, between whom the political power has remained since 1966.
(The writer is Professor, Department of Political Science, Panjab University, Chandigarh)