Trump's Af surge begs caution in Delhi

American President Donald Trump’s speech on Afghanistan last week was expected to unveil a new US policy towards the war-torn country. During his election campaign, he had pledged to pull out American troops from Afghanistan. His speech last week, however, laid out a policy that largely follows the old path. He will depend on the military to “fight terrorists,” US troops will stay on in Afghanistan, perhaps even in larger, as yet unspecified numbers. A deployment of 4,000 additional troops is expected for now and could grow. He has not laid out a withdrawal timetable. A pull-out of US troops, even a downsizing of their numbers, at this juncture would have been disastrous as the situation in Afghanistan is particularly delicate and dire today.

The Taliban controls large swathes of territory and the Islamic State has established its presence in the eastern districts. There was concern that if Trump ordered a pull-out of troops as pledged, it would result in Afghanistan’s descent into chaos. Yet, even Trump’s new ‘surge’ could also lead to heightened violence. He has promised to attack, obliterate and crush the various armed groups in Afghanistan. Afghans can expect to be pounded with greater firepower. The US President has said that he has “lifted restrictions” on what his troops can do on the field. Soldiers, especially those fighting an insurgency, need some operational autonomy and flexibility. But the lifting of restrictions that Trump is talking about could reduce their accountability. It would result in more Afghan civilians dying, abuse of human rights, and perhaps even war crimes.

The Trump administration has rightly identified Pakistan’s provision of “safe havens” for terrorist organisations as the key reason for continuing instability in Afghanistan. Trump has said that the US “can no longer be silent” about the threat Pakistan poses to the region and beyond. What kind of pressure does he propose to apply on Pakistan? The US administration is reportedly considering sanctioning of Pakistani officials with ties to terrorist organisations. This could impact ISI officials mainly. If the US implements this, it would mark a major turning point in US-Pakistan relations.

India and Afghanistan have welcomed Trump’s forthright stating of the problem. But elation in policy-making circles in Delhi over Trump’s ultimatum to Pakistan may be premature. An angry Pakistan is mobilising support against Trump from China, Turkey and even Russia. Any concrete action that the US takes to shut down terror “safe havens” in Pakistan will deepen the Russia-China-Pakistan bond, which would have serious repercussions for India’s national security. India must be on guard as the ISI can be expected to encourage attacks on Indian nationals and assets in Afghanistan.