Stratfor, a body which deals with strategic issues, however said that Naxalism is “fairly contained” in India.
It expressed these views in a report while taking a “closer look” at the Naxal problem in India, calling it as one of the world’s longest-running insurgencies. Stratfor also cautioned against deploying the military, a suggestion made by some political leaders in the wake of Naxal attacks in recent months.
“Even if the government did decide to deploy the military to combat the Naxalites in eastern India, it would face a tough fight against a well-entrenched movement—something New Delhi is not likely to undertake lightly or any time soon,” it said.
Stratfor also noted that Naxalites are honing the capability to construct and deploy IEDs, conduct armed raids and maintain an extensive, agile and responsive intelligence network.
“Despite threats and indications from Naxalites that they will attack urban targets throughout India, the group has yet to demonstrate the intent or ability to strike outside of the Red Corridor. But the group’s leaders and bombmakers could develop such a capability, and it will be important to watch for any indication that cadres are developing the tradecraft for urban terrorism,” it said.
Stratfor said even if the Maoists do not expand their target set and conduct more “terrorist-type” attacks, the Naxalite challenge to the state could materialise in other ways.
The think tank said the flexibility and autonomy among its various component parts, along with the group’s local support and indigenous knowledge of its turf, make the Naxalites a dangerous adversary against the slower moving, more deliberate and more predictable CRPF.