JOIN USBJP faces tough battle in eastern Uttar Pradesh as OBC votes dwindle
With cracks appearing in its OBC vote bank, which had helped the party sweep the region in the 2017 Assembly polls, the BJP faces a tough electoral battle in the remaining two phases of polling in the eastern districts in the Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections on March 3 and 7.
The saffron party had tied up with smaller, caste-based outfits like Suheldev Bhartiya Samaj Party (SBSP), Apna Dal (AD) and succeeded in bringing several influential OBC leaders, including Swami Prasad Maurya and Dara Singh Chauhan from the BSP, in the previous polls, which had helped consolidation of the non-Yadav OBC votes in its favour in the caste-ridden region.
While the SBSP, headed by Om Prakash Rajbhar, brought the votes of the 'Rajbhar' community, which were a deciding factor on over two dozen seats in the region, into the kitty of the BJP, the AD's influence over the electorally crucial 'Kurmi' community, helped the saffron party reach rich electoral dividends in the previous elections.
Leaders like Swami Prasad Maurya and Dara Singh Chauhan, who influenced the voters of their castes in several Assembly constituencies, had also contributed to the victory of the BJP in 2017.
The situation this time has however changed as the SBSP has joined hands with the Samajwadi Party (SP). Maurya and Chauhan had also joined the SP and were in the fray on its ticket. The SP had also been able to wean away some other influential OBC leaders like Ram Achal Rajbhar, former BSP state president, and Lalji Verma, former UP minister, from the BSP.
A quick look at the caste arithmetic of the region, which included Varanasi, Jaunpur, Azamgarh, Jaunpur, Mirzapur, Ambedkar Nagar, Gorakhpur, Deoria, Kushinagar, Ballia, Mau and Ghazipur, was enough to understand the electoral significance of the 'Rajbhar, Maurya and Chauhan' communities in the electoral battle.
Swami Prasad Maurya, a five time MLA, enjoys considerable clout among the voters of his community in Kushinagar, Deoria and Gorakhpur while Dara Singh Chauhan had his pockets of influence over his community voters in Mau, Azamgarh, Ghazipur and Ballia districts.
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Similarly the 'Rajbhars', who were around four per cent of the total electorate in UP but formed around 17 per cent of the electorate in Ghazipur, Ballia, Mau, Varanasi, Chandauli, Azamgarh, Amebdkar Nagar and Maharajganj districts, could prove a deciding factor in these districts. A shift in their votes could significantly hit the BJP's performance in these areas.
An interaction with the electorate here also proves this contention. Jamuna Rajbhar, a resident of Didarganj in Azamgarh, had voted for the BJP in the previous polls as the latter had an alliance with the SBSP but this time the SP was his preference. The reason remains the same. The SBSP is now with the SP.
''The caste-based parties come handy for the bigger parties as they have votes of their communities... These votes keep getting shifted as these parties change their alliances,'' remarked Diwakar Pandey, a retired teacher and a resident of Azamgarh town.
BJP leaders, however, reject the assertions that the departure of these leaders and some smaller parties will have any impact on their party's electoral prospects. ''The people from all communities had voted for in 2017... This time also we will get support of every caste,'' said Bahadur Chaubey, a local BJP leader here.
SP leader and party's nominee from Phulpur Pawai seat Rama Kant Yadav thinks differently. ''Not only the OBCs but other castes are also against the BJP this time,'' he says.
In 2017 Assembly polls, the BJP had polled around 40 per cent votes while the SP's vote share stood at around 20 per cent. The saffron party had managed to secure 44 per cent votes of the OBCs in the eastern region. Any significant dent in the OBC votes could hit its prospects. The fact that BJP had agreed to give more number of seats to its two OBC allies Nishad Party and AD also proved that it apprehended loss in the region.
It will be interesting to see how the caste arithmetic plays out in the region. Polling for 111 seats in the sixth and seventh phase of UP polls would be held on March 3 and 7.