Smaller parties hold key in UP’s Purvanchal

As the battle for India’s biggest and politically most crucial state of Uttar Pradesh moves into the caste-ridden Avadh and Purvanchal (eastern) regions which account for 171 seats in the 403-member UP assembly, the role of the smaller and caste-based outfits is likely to be critical for the success of the bigger parties.

The electoral equations in the region, unlike the state’s western and the central parts where politics is dominated by specific castes and communities in a majority of seats, presents a far more complicated picture with a web of castes, especially the non-Yadav OBCs and non-Jatav Dalits, which are dominant in pockets and often decide the outcome of the polls.

It is the dominance of these cases, which include Rajbhar, Kurmi, Maurya, Chauhan, Pasi, Nishad and Nonia, which forces the bigger parties to make them their alliance partners in order to weave the winning combination.

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The BJP’s stunning victory in the region in 2017 assembly polls was largely the result of its alliance with a number of smaller, caste-based outfits like the Suheldev Bhartiya Samaj Party (SBSP), which commands considerable influence among the Rajbhars and Apna Dal (AD), a Kurmi outfit. The saffron party had won 115 seats in the region, followed by the Samajwadi Party (SP), which had won 17, while the BSP had secured 14 seats. The Congress could manage only two seats while the others, mainly the BJP’s allies, had bagged 16 seats.

The situation this time, however, has changed drastically. The BJP’s 2017 ally, the SBSP, has now joined hands with the SP for the ongoing assembly polls. Although the Rajbhar community forms only 4% of the total electorate in the state, they formed 12% to 23% of the electorate in several districts in the Purvanchal region, especially in Varanasi, Azamgarh, Jaunpur, Mau, Ballia and Ghazipur, thus becoming a deciding force on over two dozen seats.

SP president Akhilesh Yadav has also brought the little known Janvadi Party (Socialist), which wields considerable influence over the ‘Nonia’ community, which are in sizeable strength on around a dozen seats in the region, under his party-led alliance. The SP also received a shot in the arm when the BJP heavyweight and a minister in Yogi Adityanath’s government, Swami Prasad Maurya, joined it a few days before the announcement of polls. He is considered to be an influential leader among the Maurya community in Gorakhpur and its adjoining districts in the region.

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“’If the SP succeeds in getting support of the Rajbhar, Nonia and Maurya communities, then along with the support of its core voters – Yadavs and Muslims – it may well have given itself a winning formula," opines S P Gaur, a Gorakhpur-based journalist.

Although the BJP has always been a strong force in the region, the party in 2017 assembly polls had managed to win only one out of the 10 seats in Azamgarh, four out of the nine seats in Jaunpur, three out of the seven seats in Ghazipur, two out of the five in Ambedkar Nagar and two out of the seven in Pratapgarh districts, clearly reflecting that it was not so strong in around half a dozen eastern districts.

“The BJP had succeeded in sweeping the region in 2017 as it had the support of the SBSP, AD and leaders like Swami Prasad Maurya, who had influence over non-Yadav OBCs. It may now find it difficult to repeat its 2017 performance in the absence of its old allies,” Gaur told DH.

No wonder, BJP leaders have been highlighting their party’s ‘Hindutva’ agenda in their public meetings along with showcasing the newly built expressways. Prime minister Narendra Modi, Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath and Union Home Minister Amit Shah have been referring to the development of Hindu religious places, including Ayodhya, Prayagraj, Mirzapur and Varanasi to woo the voters.

The BJP has publicly tried to downplay the exit of its senior OBC leaders and maintains that their departure will not have any impact on its electoral prospects. The party leaders, however, privately admit otherwise. In the 2017 assembly polls, the BJP had polled around 40% of votes while the SP’s vote share stood at around 20%. The saffron party had managed to secure 44% votes of the OBCs in the eastern region. “A dent in the OBC votes will certainly hit BJP’s prospects in the region," said Lucknow-based political analyst R S Upadhyaya.

Draw solace

The BJP can, however, draw solace from the fact that it managed to keep its alliance with the AD intact and also brought in the Nishad Party, which commands influence over the Nishad (Boatmen, fishermen) community. "The alliance may help the BJP offset some of the losses," said Upadhyaya.

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Apart from the OBC, the BJP is also hard-pressed this time to maintain its hold on the electorally influential ‘Brahmin’ community, which formed around 10% of the total electorate in Purvanchal and Avadh regions and even go up to 30% in over three dozen constituencies. The community appeared to be unhappy with Adityanath over what its leaders’ alleged ‘persecution’ of the Brahmins in his regime. Although the ‘Brahmins’ have been traditional voters of the BJP, migration of some of the high profile leaders of the community from the saffron party to the SP may make a dent in that vote bank as well. Many of them hail from Gorakhpur, the home town of Adityanath.

Just a few days before the polls, Pandit Hari Shankar Tewari, one of the tallest Brahmin leaders in Purvanchal and a six-term MLA from Chillupar seat in Gorakhpur district, joined the SP along with his two sons, one of whom a BSP MLA and another a former MP. The SP also managed to attract BSP Lok Sabha member Ritesh Pandey’s father Rakesh Pandey, an ex-MP.

The influx of so many senior Brahmin leaders into the SP triggered unease within the saffron party prompting it to launch frantic efforts to douse the perceived anger in the community and bring them back into its fold. It formed a 16-member committee headed by the party’s Rajya Sabha member Shiv Pratap Shukla to reach out to the community and apprise them about the various measures initiated by the Centre and the state government for the welfare of the community.

It remains to be seen which caste combination triumphs in the Purvanchal and Avadh regions but political analysts opine that they will witness a close contest this time.

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