Bihar Assembly Elections 2025 | BJP's Nitish Kumar dilemma: A catch-22 before polls

Bettiah (Bihar): As Bihar moves closer to the upcoming assembly elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and NDA finds itself in a classic Catch-22 situation over one question - who will be the alliance's Chief Ministerial face? The dilemma revolves around Nitish Kumar, the longest serving CM of the state and a seasoned survivor despite switching sides on occasions more than one. Despite having a long administrative experience and a carefully crafted image of 'Sushashan Babu (Mr. Governance),' his name divides both - BJP and its allies.

Nitish Kumar, with strong administrative credentials, holds a significant recall value among voters. 'His image of 'sushasan babu' still trumps the anti-incumbency factor and he is seen as a development-oriented leader could still attract sections of the electorate, particularly those who associate Lalu-Rabri era as 'Jungle raj.' The narrative around these elections is simple - it's 'Sushasan Vs Jungle Raj,' says Pravesh Mishra, former political bureau chief of a Hindi daily and now a political observer Pravesh Mishra.

In this background, it is even more surprising why BJP is not announcing Nitish as the CM candidate of the alliance. On this, Mishra says, 'BJP's strategy is clear. Party is not going to reduce itself as the second fiddle officially, but it will propagate Nitish as the Numero Uno leader for the alliance in the state.'

One more reason for BJP not announcing Nitish as CM is the aspirations of its core voter base who has been loyal to the party for decades. After playing second fiddle to Nitish Kumar for nearly two decades, a section of BJP supporters feels it is time for their party to lead the government independently. If the BJP declares Nitish Kumar as its CM candidate, it risks alienating its own base.

In a caste dominated state like Bihar, it becomes very important for any party to not alienate its voter base. 'BJP is vary of constituencies where the JD(U) has limited influence and where the BJP’s own organizational strength is critical,' said an MP from the saffron party on the condition of anonymity. He further said that 'the party does not want to commit any such thing which might look odd in the light of poll results on Nov 14. Currently, with the strength of 43 MLAs in the house of 243, Nitish is CM.'

Now, it's evident that BJP has chosen to not announce Nitish Kumar’s name as the CM face but there are risks in that option too. Party is risking unsettling JD(U)’s traditional voters. For those, Nitish Kumar is the symbol of stability and governance, and could become apprehensive about his political future in the alliance. This apprehension could turn into either low voting or even worse - tactical voting against the BJP-led alliance.

In the last election, NDA could manage a slender majority and nearly negligible difference in vote-share. Even a swing in point percentages can make a huge difference in the end result.

BJP has carefully adopted a strategy which looks ambigould and that too- deliberately. Party leaders are neither declaring nor denying Nitish Kumar’s leadership role. PM Narendra Modi during a rally in Begusarai was heard saying “This time under the leadership of Bihar CM Nitish Kumar, NDA will break all its previous records of victory.” Despite mentioning 'under Nitish babu's leadership,' Modi didn't say that Nitish is NDA's CM candidate. Union Home Minister Amit Shah too recently said in a TV interview that after elections, MLAs will decide on the CM.

With flexible messaging, praising Nitish Kumar’s experience in public, BJP has also empowered to allow local leaders and supporters to hint at a 'strong BJP government' in the future. On ground, it looks that there is some confusion among voters regarding the role of Nitish Kumar post-Nov 14.

Meanwhile, the Mahagathbandhan, the opposition alliance led by the RJD and Congress - sees a clear opportunity in this confusion. RJD leader and I.N.D.I.A bloc's CM face, Tejashwi Yadav was quick to pick on this and said 'Chacha (Nitish Kumar) is not in control. Two people from Gujarat, Modi and Shah, are running Bihar from Delhi."

With Tejashwi already showing a soft stance on Nitish, any possibility can't be ruled out. How BJP handles the Nitish Kumar question in the next couple of weeks will shape the tone of its campaign. Whether this calculated ambiguity pays off or backfires remains to be seen but with polling just days away, the road to Patna’s power corridors looks more complicated than ever.