Bihar Assembly Elections 2025 | Owaisi's Seemanchal swing and a brewing three-way contest

Kishanganj: On either side of National Highway-27, from Bagdogra in North Bengal to Kishanganj in Bihar, all you can see is tea leaves. Quite literally. If you were to stop for a bite of sweet-sour pineapples sold at every second milestone, you would also get a taste of what's brewing this election season in Seemanchal, the farthest corner of poll-bound Bihar, that touches Nepal in the north and the Chicken’s Neck in the east.

The 24 seats in the four districts of the region — Kishanganj, Araria, Purnia and Katihar — will go to the polls in the second phase. These districts have a high percentage of Muslim population, as high as 60% in Kishanganj and 40% in Katihar.

The demography suits the I.N.D.I.A. bloc — the RJD and Congress. It did, for decades. Till AIMIM leader Asaduddin Owaisi decided to expand his base beyond the Deccan and fielded his candidates in 2015. He failed to impress voters then.

To demonstrate that he wasn’t here just for kite-flying (the kite being AIMIM's symbol), the Hyderabad MP persisted. His efforts paid off, as his candidate won a bye-election from Kishanganj just ahead of the last Assembly elections.

In 2020, the AIMIM changed Seemanchal politics, winning five seats: two each in Kishanganj and Purnia, and one in Araria. In the process, it damaged the RJD-Congress prospects in another dozen seats across Bihar. 

For an election where the difference between the NDA and the RJD-led Opposition was a mere 12,000 votes, marginal seats mattered and tilted the scales away from the Opposition.

In Kishanganj, the Congress managed to win by less than 1,400 votes over the BJP candidate, as AIMIM’s Qamrul Hoda received 24% of the votes. In two seats in the adjoining Purnia district, AIMIM candidates pushed RJD-Congress nominees to the third spot.

“We lost five, but the damage was not confined to Seemanchal,” says Rajasthan Congress MLA Rafeek Khan, now camping in Kishanganj to manage the party’s election.

“But Owaisi is exposed now. People are asking where he got all the money to fund his campaign last time around, and four of five MLAs later left him to join the RJD,” he adds.

Owaisi’s party has been conscious of the allegations by the 'secular' bloc that AIMIM's entry into the fray divides Opposition votes to the BJP's advantage. Ahead of the nomination process, Owaisi held a series of roadshows in the region, offering to contest the elections as part of the I.N.D.I.A bloc.

“It is now common knowledge that I wrote to (RJD president) Lalu Prasad and Tejashwi Yadav, expressing willingness for a tie-up. But no response came. Now, we must do all that we can to expand our footprints," he said, announcing his list of 25 candidates for this election. To make a point, far away in Telangana, his home turf, Owaisi has extended support to a Congress candidate contesting the Jubilee Hill bypoll, elections for which would be held in Bihar.

But why has a Hyderabad-based party found support in pockets of remote Bihar?

“Well, we see Owaisi raise issues concerning Muslims in Parliament, we see him do that regularly,” says Miraj, a voter from Thakurganj, where he says the RJD is strong. “But in the adjoining Bahadurganj, the AIMIM’s prospects look promising,” adds Miraj, who runs a mom-and-pop shop.

His friend Salman thinks the contest in most Kishanganj seats is triangular between the BJP, AIMIM and the I.N.D.I.A bloc. “But Inshaallah, people will vote for development,” he says.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi launched the BJP campaign for the Bihar polls last month by inaugurating a slew of development schemes, including a new airport terminal at Purnia. After Deepavali, flight operations have also started for Delhi and Hyderabad.

In his speech, coinciding with Rahul Gandhi’s vote-bachao yatra, Modi accused the Congress of "protecting foreign infiltrators".

Electorally, a direct contest does not suit the BJP in Seemanchal. If the minority votes are split, the NDA stands a chance to win, especially in seats where one-way voting by Muslims can conclusively seal the electoral outcome.