Lok Sabha polls: Karnataka BJP looks to remain on 2019 peak, Congress mounts strong offensive

Five years ago, when the BJP posted its highest tally by crossing 300 seats in the Lok Sabha polls, the party’s biggest success story was arguably Karnataka, where its dream run went rather under-emphasised. 

Out of 28 seats, the BJP swept 25, reducing the Congress and JD(S) - alliance partners then - to one seat each. Another seat was won by a BJP-backed independent candidate. 

Five years later, the political landscape has changed. The BJP and JD(S) have come on one side to fight a resurgent Congress that stormed to victory in the Assembly polls eight months ago. 

For the BJP to repeat its 2019 performance in Karnataka will be an uphill task. For the Congress, too, upending the saffron applecart will be easier said than done, given Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity that seems intact. 

Through the week, both BJP and Congress had their stock-taking meetings. They have one thing in common: the problem of finding winnable candidates. 

Ticket troubles

After marathon meetings, the BJP seems to be headed towards trouble in several seats such as Bidar, Bellary, Udupi-Chickmagalur, Dakshina Kannada, Koppal, Davangere, Chamarajanagar, Belgaum and Bijapur, where the party either lacks clarity on who the candidate should be or there is “resistance” to fielding the sitting Lok Sabha member. 

A section of BJP leaders and workers are said to have sought fresh faces in the coastal seats of Uttara Kannada, Dakshina Kannada and Udupi-Chickmagalur.

The threat of rebellion looms in Koppal, Bidar, Raichur, Belgaum and Bellary, where demands to replace the MPs are high.

The candidate selection process is likely to gain momentum after the January 22 consecration of the Ram temple in Ayodhya, BJP MLA and general secretary V Sunil Kumar said. “We have requested the central leadership to finalise 50% of the tickets (14 seats) before February 15,” he added. 

JD(S), a minor partner

The BJP also has to deal with its alliance partner JD(S). “We still don’t have clarity on seat-sharing, but we’re sure of getting 4-5 constituencies where we have winnable candidates,” JD(S) leader K A Thippeswamy said, adding that his party was confident of getting Hassan, Mandya and Kolar.

The party may also ask for Chickballapur, Tumkur and Bangalore Rural. “Even in North Karnataka, we have winnable candidates in Bijapur and Raichur,” he added. 

The Congress is having a hard time finding “winnable” candidates in many seats. The party had tasked ministers with identifying potential candidates. This exercise failed going by what Deputy Chief Minister D K Shivakumar, the Karnataka Congress president, said earlier in the week. “Reports received on potential candidates are not satisfactory,” he said. 

Banking on ministers’ magic

The Congress is mounting pressure on ministers to deliver good results by appointing them as coordinators for each Lok Sabha segment. For example, Mysore-Kodagu segment, where CM Siddaramaiah is an MLA, is the responsibility of his trusted lieutenant Social Welfare Minister H C Mahadevappa.

The party wants to field a Vokkaliga there. “Mahadevappa is asking for his son, the ticket in neighbouring Chamarajanagar. So, being a minister, we want his skin in the game,” a senior leader said. 

The fact that Congress is even considering ministers as candidates may point to paucity of strong contenders. Karnataka Congress working president Saleem Ahmed denied this. “The Congress has candidates in all seats. There are a minimum of 4 aspirants in every seat. In some seats, the number is as high as seven and 20,” he said. 

Notwithstanding teething ticket problems, a lot is riding on the Lok Sabha polls in Karnataka for BJP and Congress. 

High hope on guarantees

The Congress is again counting on its guarantees to bring votes in Lok Sabha elections.

“During Assembly polls, we had promised the guarantees. Now, in just seven months, we have implemented them. Compare this with 10 years of PM Modi, who hasn’t delivered on his promises,” Ahmed said. 

For the state BJP, helping to make Modi win a third term is the only common ground in its wrangling house that is now headed by veteran B S Yediyurappa’s son B Y Vijayendra.

“Modi is our guarantee. It’s Modi versus Zero. There’s no alternative to Modi when it comes to leadership. Everyone has come together without an ideology,” Kumar said. “Their only objective is to defeat Modi.”

(With inputs from N B Hombal and Rashmi Belur)