Guwahati: Since 2019, BJP in the Northeast have either retained power or recalibrated ties with regional ally to be in power in most of the states despite initial jittery over the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), passed a few months before the Lok Sabha polls.
Introduction of Inner Line Permit (ILP) in Manipur and exclusion of the tribal dominated areas governed by the autonomous councils since then not only helped BJP overcome the threats posed by the anti-CAA sentiments but also convinced allies to remain with the ruling party.
The Centre's constant increase in allocations for development of the Northeast and signing of several pacts with rebel groups to end insurgency, a problem confronting the region for decades, also prompted a few more regional parties to join the BJP fold.
This, along with shrinking representation of the Opposition Congress in the assemblies and the local autonomous councils have made BJP and its allies confident of overcoming the brick bats it invited over the conflict in Manipur and the anger over the CAA rules doing better this time than the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.
"We will win 22 out of 25 Lok Sabha seats," Assam CM Himanta Biswa Sarma said in Guwahati recently. Sarma, who heads the North East Democratic Alliance (NEDA), a forum of BJP and its allies in the Northeast, further said 2014 polls are going to be "simple elections" for BJP and its allies as the Centre has done enormous work for peace and development in the Northeast.
Assam:
BJP has put up candidates in 11 out of 14 Lok Sabha seats in Assam and is supporting its ally Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and United People's Party Liberal (UPPL), in two and one seat, respectively. AGP candidates are contesting in Dhubri and Barpeta seats, where Badruddin Ajmal of AIUDF and Congress' Abdul Khaleque had won in 2019, respectively. Khaleque, however, has been replaced this time by Congress as Barpeta has reportedly been turned into a Hindu-majority constituency through the delimitation exercise. BJP believes the delimitation would help it as demography of majority of the constituencies have been changed to help the party's Hindutva politics.
Assam, in fact, is the only state in the region where Congress is leading a forum of Opposition parties including two anti-CAA political outfits, Asom Jatiya Parishad (AJP) and Akhil Gogoi-led Raijor Dal. Congress candidates have been fielded in 13 seats while the forum is supporting the founder of AJP, Lurinjyoti Gogoi, in Dibrugarh. Union Minister Sarbananda Sonowal is Gogoi's contender. BJP hopes it would win at least 11 seats while AGP and UPPL would bag one each. Ajmal, who has won thrice in a row in minority-dominated Dhubri, is still the frontrunner.
Equation in Arunachal and Meghalaya:
BJP ally National People's Party (NPP) has decided to support the saffron party's candidates, Union Minister Kiren Rijiju and sitting MP Tapir Gao for two Lok Sabha seats in Arunachal Pradesh while BJP has decided to back NPP candidates in both Shillong and Tura constituencies in Meghalaya. In 2019, Congress' Vincent Pala won in Shillong while Agatha Sangma, sister of NPP Chief and Meghalaya CM Conrad K. Sangam won in 2019. BJP is part of the NPP-led government in Meghalaya.
New ally in Tripura:
BJP got a boost in Tripura ahead of Lok Sabba polls as Tipra Motha, a regional party, which came into being out of the anti-CAA agitation, joined the BJP-led government and fielded its candidate in one of the two seats. Motha, founded by the erstwhile Royal scion Pradyot Deb Barma in 2020, had contested the Assembly elections last year, against both BJP and other Opposition parties. The party won 13 (out of 60) Assembly seats. It, however, joined the government weeks after signing an agreement with the government that promised to solve the problems confronting the indigenous people. While Padyot's sister Kriti Singh Deb Barma is the joint candidate of Tipra Motha-BJP in Tripura East, former CM and senior BJP leader Biplab Kumar Deb has been named for Tripura West. This change in the equation in Tripura politics, however, led the Opposition left and the Congress to fight the elections together after decades.
Conflict in Manipur:
Nearly one-year-long conflict in Manipur between the majority Meitei and the Kuki community, in which over 200 people died, is perhaps going to be the only thorn in BJP's trajectory in the Northeast. BJP has decided to contest in the Meitei-dominated Manipur Inner Lok Sabha seat while it decided to support Naga People's Front in Outer Manipur, where Nagas and Kukis are deciding factors. NPF had won in Outer Manipur in 2019. Congress too has named a Naga candidate in Outer Manipur.
Nagaland and Mizoram:
BJP has decided to support the candidate of NDPP, its regional partner in the coalition government in Nagaland while in Mizoram, the party is likely to extend support to the candidate of Zoram People's Movement, a party which came to power in the state for the first time in December last year. ZPM has fielded entrepreneur Richard Vanlalhmangaiha against K. Vanlalvena, a Rajya Sabha member belonging to Opposition Mizo National Front and former police officer Lalbiakzama of Congress. BJP is also confident of winning the lone Lok Sabha seat in Sikkim, where Assembly elections will also be conducted simultaneously.
Graphics info:
State----------------LS seat---------2019 tally
Assam---------------14----------------BJP: 9, Cong:3
Meghalaya---------02----------------Cong: 1, NPP:1
Tripura----------------02---------------BJP: 2
Arunachal-----------02---------------BJP: 2
Manipur--------------02---------------BJP:1, NPF: 1
Nagaland------------01---------------NDPP: 1
Mizoram--------------01--------------MNF