Maharashtra Assembly Elections 2024: Vote-transfer ability is the X factor

Mumbai: As the campaign for Maharashtra polls enters the last lap, the ability of each party to transfer votes to their respective alliance partners has emerged as the critical X factor in what is being seen as a close contest. Away from the high-octane rhetoric, all key players have set into motion tactical voting mechanisms and hyper-local outreach to mop up support for the joint candidates.

The backroom maneuvers for vote consolidation among ideologically incompatible allies were evident in the seat distribution of both Maha Vikas Agadhi and the ruling Mahayuti. Scrutiny of the MVA candidate list shows Congress's willingness to accommodate Shiv Sena (UBT) in a dozen or more seats over which the grand old party had a strong claim. This phenomenon is more pronounced in the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR).

"We were surprised to see the Congress contesting in far fewer seats than was expected. Three in Mumbai and about 12 elsewhere," says a BJP poll manager.

In the MVA camp, Congress and NCP (SP) are long-standing natural allies and hence, their compatibility quotient is far higher than that with the Sena (UBT). Nevertheless, the polling data from the recent Lok Sabha elections shows that the transfer of traditional Congress-NCP (SP) votes to Uddhav's Sena has been nearly absolute, especially in seats where minorities and a section of Dalits have a strong presence.

For instance, the Byculla constituency in Mumbai is a Congress stronghold, but was conceded to the Sena (UBT). In the LS elections, Uddhav's candidate led in this assembly segment by more than 40,000 votes. In a Uddhav Sena vs Shinde Sena face-off in the assembly elections, the MVA is hoping to pull off a redux of the LS polling pattern.

"There are no friendly fights anywhere. We have chosen our candidates and allocated seats to allies with great care," says Congress Maharashtra poll in-charge Ramesh Chennithala.

In the political churn which ensued from defections over the last three years, Uddhav Thackray's faction inadvertently gained from having to concede the bow-and-arrow symbol to the Shinde camp. "Non-NDA voters were more comfortable voting for the torch," says a Congress legislator in the MMR region.

"Uddhav's camp is surviving on Congress votes, while the Sena voters have stayed with us," claims Chief Minister Eknath Shinde.

The LS election data also shows the importance of smaller parties, like Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM and Prakash Ambedkar-led RPI faction, in a fragmented polity.  The two parties can split the MVA votes, as they did in 2019 to NDA’s advantage.

In the Mahayuti camp, the Shinde Sena and the BJP have a long tradition and history of contesting together. The conflict occurs in seats where Ajit Pawar's party is allocated a seat or party rebels have triggered 'friendly' contests.

In the LS polls, the NCP, which won just one seat, registered the lowest strike rate. Though a section of the BJP and RSS have voiced their reservations about aligning with Ajit Pawar, political pragmatism seems to have finally overwhelmed ideological puritanism.

"The current RSS mobilisation for Mahayiti can only be compared to either the 1995 or 2014 elections. As a force multiplier, the focus of RSS and BJP now is on a door-to-door campaign for all ally candidates," says a BJP leader who has been coordinating on creating joint narratives for the ruling alliance.

At the onset of the campaign, there were efforts to create joint coordination committees among all Mahayuti allies in every constituency. These efforts have been fructified in some constituencies. 

Assembly Elections 2024 | The Maharashtra Assembly polls will take place against the backdrop of a fractured political landscape in the western state where the Shiv Sena and NCP will be going up against the Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar factions, even as the BJP and Congress try to make their mark. Meanwhile, in Jharkhand, the JMM faces a new challenge after Hemant Soren's recent arrest and Champai, a longstanding party member, joining the BJP. The Haryana election resulted in a shock loss for Congress, which was looking to galvanize on the Lok Sabha poll performance, while J&K also saw the grand old party eventually stepping away from the cabinet, with Omar Abdullah's JKNC forming government. It remains to be seen if the upcoming polls help BJP cement its position further or provide a fillip to I.N.D.I.A. Check live updates and track the latest coverage, live news, in-depth opinions, and analyses only on Deccan Herald.

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