Paris Agreement could help world avoid 57 hot days each year: Study

Mumbai: The 2015 Paris Agreement could help the world avoid 57 hot days if countries follow through on their emission-cutting plans and limit warming this century to 2.6°C, according to a study by Climate Central and World Central Attribution.

However, the researchers warn that 2.6°C will still subject future generations to dangerous heat, cause severe health impacts, and widen inequality.

They call for stronger commitments and policies to accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels and keep warming well below 2°C.

"The Paris Agreement is helping many regions of the world avoid some of the worst possible outcomes of climate change. But make no mistake — we are still heading for a dangerously hot future. The impacts of recent heat waves show that many countries are not well prepared to deal with 1.3°C of warming, let alone the 2.6°C of warming projected if – and it’s a big if – countries meet their current emissions reduction pledges. Faster, deeper, and more ambitious emission cuts are crucial to ensure future generations live in a safe climate,” pointed out Dr Kristina Dahl, Vice President for Science at Climate Central.

“Every fraction of a degree matters. From 2015 to 2023, with an additional 0.3°C of warming, the world now sees an average of 11 more hot days per year. That’s not just a number — delaying the shift away from fossil fuels means millions more people are exposed to life-threatening conditions. Countries need to act with the highest ambition to bring warming as far below 2°C as possible,” said Joseph Giguere, Research Associate at Climate Central.

“The Paris Agreement works. It shows that when countries come together, they can accelerate emission cuts for a safer future. The landmark accord is making a difference,” said Bernadette Woods Placky, Chief Meteorologist at Climate Central.

The 2015 Paris Agreement set the goal of keeping global temperatures well below 2°C and to continue pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C, if possible. Today, warming has reached more than 1.3°C, and with emissions continuing to rise, some political leaders have questioned the effectiveness of the agreement.

The study, however, shows it is helping move the world toward a safer climate. The first part focused on hot days — the top 10% warmest temperatures of countries around the world. At 4°C of warming, the world was expected to experience an average of 114 hot days. Today, if countries deliver on their current emission plans and keep warming to 2.6°C, the world will experience an average of 57 fewer hot days compared to 4°C. Kenya could see 82 fewer days, Mexico 77, Brazil 69, Egypt 36, Australia 34, India 30, the US 30, the UK 29, China 29, and Spain 27.

Key findings include:

● At 4°C of warming — the baseline level used in 2015 before the agreement was signed — the world would have experienced an average of 114 hot days per year.

● Today, if countries successfully deliver on their current emission plans and limit warming to 2.6°C, the world could experience 57 fewer hot days annually.

● Six recent heat events that scorched countries around the world would be about 5 to 75 times more likely than today at 4°C, but 3 to 35 times more likely at 2.6°C.

● Keeping warming well below 2°C is vital as heat becomes more dangerous with every fraction of a

degree. Since 2015, an increase of 0.3°C has resulted in 11 more hot days globally and made heatwaves around the world much more likely, including by ten times in the Amazon, nine times in Mali and Burkina Faso, and two times in India and Pakistan.

● Adaptation finance is limited, and investments in early warning systems and action plans are still limited in many cities and countries.