Why BJP needs Nitish Kumar to stay relevant in Bihar

Ten months from now, Bihar will have the Assembly elections spread over October and November, with the Election Commission set to notify the schedule in September.

However, the state is making news again after Union Home Minister Amit Shah, the second most powerful person in the saffron brigade, said that “we will sit and decide” when asked whether the NDA will contest under Nitish’s leadership or, like Maharashtra, there will be no chief ministerial face in Bihar in 2025.

Shah’s statement might have stirred a hornet’s nest, but the JD(U) was quite categorical. “Bihar is not Maharashtra. And Nitish is not Eknath Shinde (whom you can arm-twist),” a close aide of Nitish told DH.

“Since 2005, people have voted in the name of Nitish, who ensured rule of law in a lawless state and put Bihar back on the track of development. Good governance is his USP and voters have stood by him election after election,” said the aide.

Nitish’s aide was not wide off the mark. But it’s equally true that Bihar is one state in the Hindi heartland where the BJP has never had a chief minister, despite being the single largest party at present in the Assembly. And if some state-level leaders have suggested that it’s high time the BJP has its own CM in Bihar in 2025, it’s more out of emotions than electoral math.

This is precisely why the BJP clarified on Sunday that the Bihar elections will be contested under the leadership of Nitish. “There is no doubt that next year’s election will be contested under the leadership of Nitish and Narendra Modi,” said Deputy Chief Minister Samrat Choudhary in New Delhi on December 22, putting all speculations to rest.

Riding piggyback

Whether the BJP likes it or not, there are three reasons it will have to ride piggyback on Nitish. First, Nitish’s unblemished image as an honest politician who has effectively governed Bihar and put it on a fast track of development.

Second, Nitish’s 15 per cent hardcore voters have always stood by him, regardless of his alliance, be it with the NDA or I.N.D.I.A.

Combined with the BJP’s 19 per cent, 5 per cent from Chirag Paswan’s LJP, and 2.5 per cent from smaller players, this secures over 40 per cent of votes, ensuring a landslide victory. This was proved in 2010 when Nitish was with the NDA and in 2015 with the RJD-led Mahagatbandhan.

Third, the BJP never cultivated a strong state leader for the CM role. Other than the late Sushil Modi, no BJP deputy CM matched Nitish’s integrity and administrative skills.

(The writer is a Patna-based journalist)